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US Dollar Back on the Offensive as Key Inflation Data Looms

US Dollar Back on the Offensive as Key Inflation Data Looms

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar returns to the offensive as PCE data looms ahead
  • Euro may rise if upbeat CPI data boosts bets on QE unwind
  • UK GDP upgrade might bolster Pound on rate hike outlook

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in Asia Pacific trade, falling against all of its major counterparts in a move that seemed to be corrective following the previous day’s outsized gains. The Japanese Yen likewise traded lower after the BOJ hinted that stimulus expansion may be ahead.

On the other side of the spectrum, the US Dollar traded broadly higher against its G10 FX peers. The benchmark unit appeared to have succumbed to profit-taking after four consecutive days of gains in the prior session but now seems to be on the offensive once again.

Augusts’ PCE inflation data – the Fed’s favored price growth gauge – is now in focus. The headline on-year rate is expected to rise for the first time in six months, hitting 1.5 percent. If the figures follow the lead of analogous CPI statistics and overshoot the forecast, the greenback might find fresh fuel for gains.

Eurozone CPI headlines the European data docket, with the year-on-year inflation rate seen rising to a five-month high at 1.6 percent. A better-than-expected outcome echoing recently rosy regional news-flow may boost the Euro as traders position for the unwinding of QE asset purchases in the near term.

A revised second-quarter UK GDP reading is also on tap. Here too, recent data outcomes have conspicuously improved relative to analysts’ expectations over the past six weeks. If this foreshadows an upgrade, the British Pound may rise as BOE rate hike speculation heats up anew.

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Asia Session

European Session

** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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