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Euro, Pound May Rise with BOE and ECB Policy Back in Focus

Euro, Pound May Rise with BOE and ECB Policy Back in Focus

2017-09-28 05:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar gains as Fed rate hike bets swell, may ignore Q2 GDP revision
  • British Pound may rise as BOE’s Carney puts rates policy back into focus
  • Euro might correct higher as uptick in German CPI stokes QE taper hopes

The US Dollar continued to march higher in Asia Pacific trade, with the currency now on pace to score a fifth consecutive day of broad-based gains versus its top counterparts. Firming Fed rate hike prospects remain the driver behind the advance, with prices rising alongside front-end bond yields and the policy path implied in Fed Funds futures continuing to steepen in tandem.

As with yesterday’s session, the rates-sensitive Australian Dollar bore the brunt of selling pressure. Interestingly, the New Zealand Dollar held its own even in the wake of a dovish RBNZ policy announcement. Perhaps investors are not ready to commit to a direction until the political landscape clears up following an inconclusive general election.

A speech from BOE Governor Mark Carney stands out on the European economic calendar. The British Pound was battered by headline-driven volatility yesterday but comments from the UK central bank chief might bring rate hike prospects back to the forefront. Even the usually dovish Carney has acknowledged the need for modest tightening recently. More of the same might send Sterling upward.

German CPI figures are also on tap. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is seen holding steady at 1.8 percent. Price-growth data out the currency bloc has tended to disappoint relative to consensus forecasts in recent months, opening the door to the possibility of a downside surprise. PMI survey data argues for a pickup however, which may push the Euro higher amid hopes for imminent tapering of QE asset purchases.

The spotlight then turns to revised second-quarter US GDP statistics. Analysts put the headline annualized growth figure at 3 percent, unchanged from the prior estimate. Putting the release in the context of recent price action, it seems like only a downgrade would command the markets’ attention. Otherwise, the numbers may simply add to the pile of evidence supporting a USD rally that is already underway.

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Asia Session

Euro, Pound May Rise with BOE and ECB Policy Back in Focus

European Session

Euro, Pound May Rise with BOE and ECB Policy Back in Focus

** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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