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British Pound May Fall on CPI as Euro Looks Past German GDP Data

British Pound May Fall on CPI as Euro Looks Past German GDP Data

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • British Pound may decline as inflation data falls short of expectations
  • Euro unlikely to find lasting direction in on-trend German GDP data
  • US Dollar may rise if upbeat retail sales numbers boost Fed outlook

UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline on-year inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.7 percent in July from 2.6 percent in the prior month, matching the near-term trend average. UK price-growth data has conspicuously deteriorated relative to forecasts recently, echoing broader malaise in the country’s news-flow for most of the year. More of the same may hurt the British Pound.

Second-quarterGerman GDP figures are also on tap. A modest pickup is expected but the projected outcomes (0.7 percent q/q and 1.9 percent y/y) would be well within the range prevailing in recent years and so hardly indicative of the kind of performance that might get the ECB moving faster on stimulus withdrawal. On balance, such a result may pass the Euro by without fireworks.

Later in the day, July’s US retail sales statistics enter the spotlight.Receipts are seen rising 0.4 percent from the prior month, the most since January. An upside surprisein line with steady improvement in US data flow compared with analysts’ median expectations since mid-June may boost bets on another Fed interest rate hike in 2017, boosting the US Dollar.

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** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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