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Pound May Be More Sensitive to Soft vs. Firm UK CPI Data

Pound May Be More Sensitive to Soft vs. Firm UK CPI Data

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • Pound may be more sensitive to soft vs. firm UK CPI data
  • Downside surprise may stoke bets on further BOE easing
  • Euro may overlook German ZEW, Eurozone GDP figures

UK CPI headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.6 percent on-year, the highest since September 2013. The Bank of England seems firmly entrenched in wait-and-see mode despite firming price growth, chalking it up to currency depreciation after last year’s Brexit referendum. That means another uptick may not offer much of a lift to the British Pound.

On the other hand, a soft result may be more market-moving. UK data flow has increasingly disappointed relative to consensus forecasts recently, hinting that the cooling effect of uncertainty surrounding the departure from the EU is finally emerging. A soft inflation print may be taken to mean that the BOE might get the flexibility to do something about it sooner rather than later, sending the currency downward.

Germany’s ZEW survey of investor confidence and a second look at first-quarter Eurozone GDP figures may pass without fireworks. The former is expected to show improvement while the latter confirms preliminary estimates showing the region-wide output added 0.5 percent in the first three months of the year. With the ECB seemingly on auto-pilot, the results are unlikely to mean much for the Euro.

What do retail traders Euro and Pound bets hint about the price trend! Find out here !

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** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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