Talking Points:
- Euro unlikely to find fuel in bloc-wide GDP, German jobs data
- All eyes now on the tone of the FOMC monetary policy statement
- US Dollar outlook hinges on Fed view of Q1 growth slowdown
Eurozone GDP figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The on-year growth rate is expected to register at 1.7 percent in the first quarter, unchanged from the three months through December 2016. The quarterly gain is projected at 0.5 percent, also a repeat of the prior period.
Separately, German labor-market statistics are forecast to show the ranks of the unemployed shrank by a further 11,000 while the jobless rate remains unchanged at 5.8 percent in April. News-flow out of the currency bloc has improved relative to median bets in recent weeks, opening the door for rosier outcomes.
On balance, the Euro seems unlikely to find much interest in these figures. The single currency may see some near-term gains if realized results substantially overshoot expectations but follow-through is unlikely considering the numbers’ limited implications changing the ECB’s firmly dovish posture.
This puts the spotlight on the FOMC monetary policy announcement. A change in the baseline lending rate is not in the cards but traders will keenly comb through the statement accompanying the rate decision for clues about what is to come next. As it stands, the priced-in chance of a hike in June is 70 percent.
Weeks of disappointing US economic data flow culminated in a gloomy first-quarter GDP report last week. The key question now is whether the central bank thinks this to be a temporary misstep or fears that something more ominous and longer-lasting is afoot.
The Fed’s own Beige Book regional economic survey struck an optimistic note even as data flow soured. If this foreshadows a sanguine FOMC statement, the US Dollaris likely to rise. A worried disposition that casts doubt on policymakers’ wherewithal to deliver three hikes this year may sink the greenback however.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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