Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
Aussie Dollar Gains on Neutral RBA, Pound May Rise on Soft PMI

Aussie Dollar Gains on Neutral RBA, Pound May Rise on Soft PMI

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • Aussie Dollar rose after broadly neutral RBA policy announcement
  • Gains might reflect short-term dovish tone bets and may soon fizzle
  • Pound could rise if soft PMI is seen helping to soften Brexit rhetoric

The Australian Dollar rose after the RBA kept its official cash rate unchanged at a record-low 1.50 percent, as widely expected. The statement accompanying the announcement was firmly neutral, reinforcing the likelihood that the central bank will remain on hold for some time yet. With that in mind, the currency’s slight uptick may reflect near-term bets on a more dovish tone. Significant follow-through seems unlikely.

UK Manufacturing PMI data headlines a relatively muted European data docket. Expectations point to a slight slowing in the pace of factory-sector activity in April compared with the prior month. UK economic news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-February, hinting that analysts’ models are perhaps overly optimistic and opening the door for a downside surprise.

The implications of a soft outcome for the British Pound may be somewhat counter-intuitive. As noted previously, the markets are all but certain that the BOE is on hold for the foreseeable future. Indeed, a rate hike is not priced in through 2018. With that in mind, signs of slowdown may prove supportive for Sterling if they help soften the tone of Brexit rhetoricahead of a general election in June.

What is most important in shaping GBP trends through mid-year? See our forecast to find out!

Asia Session

European Session

** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.