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Australian, NZ Dollars Drop on Firming Fed Outlook - Will it Last?

Australian, NZ Dollars Drop on Firming Fed Outlook - Will it Last?

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro leads regional FX higher amid French election optimism
  • Improving market sentiment punishing anti-risk Japanese Yen
  • Aussie, Kiwi Dollars suffer as Fed rate hike outlook improves

Optimism following the outcome of first-round voting in the French presidential election continues to define currency market price action. The Euro is leading most regional majors upward as updated polls suggest centrist Emmanuel Macron will beat eurosceptic Marine Le Pen by a margin of approximately 60 to 40 percent in the second round on May 7.

The broader markets’ mood is consequently brighter, with the anti-risk Japanese Yen on the defensive. Meanwhile, US Treasury bond yields are marching higher to suggest that the apparent removal of a major threat to market stability will allow for steeper Fed tightening. The hawkish drift in US policy bets has duly hurt the acutely rates-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollars.

S&P 500 futures are pointing higher, hinting that more of the same is likely as Wall Street comes online. Soft US economic data may sour the mood to some extent however. Weaker readings on new home sales and consumer confidence are expected. News-flow out of the world’s largest economy has disappointed recently, opening the door for still weaker results that may cool Fed rate hike bets.

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Asia Session

Australian, NZ Dollars Drop on Firming Fed Outlook - Will it Last?

European Session

Australian, NZ Dollars Drop on Firming Fed Outlook - Will it Last?

** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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