News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.65%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 77.78%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/mhS5GPlzBU
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.17% Oil - US Crude: -0.22% Silver: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/DrnTBv3TGT
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here: https://t.co/rJznrXkcYz https://t.co/F98u380a6a
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.63% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.42% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.15% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.01% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.00% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/qb29dNwFFu
  • 🇨🇭 Consumer Confidence (Q3) Actual: 10 Previous: -18 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • 🇪🇸 Unemployment Change (JUL) Actual: -197.8K Previous: -166.9K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.31% US 500: 0.27% France 40: 0.20% FTSE 100: -0.04% Germany 30: -0.14% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/wOyy3Nhn5u
  • Heads Up:🇨🇭 Consumer Confidence (Q3) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -7.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • Heads Up:🇪🇸 Unemployment Change (JUL) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -166.9K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/JIeP0eAD3i
Hard Brexit Fears May Derail Trump Trade Unwind as May Speaks

Hard Brexit Fears May Derail Trump Trade Unwind as May Speaks

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar drops with yields as “Trump trade” unwind returns
  • Risk aversion may follow UK PM May Brexit strategy speech
  • UK CPI at highest since 2014 unlikely to stir strong response

The US Dollar faced broad-based selling pressure as liquidity began to return after yesterday’s closure for the Martin Luther King Jr Day holiday. The greenback fell alongside US Treasury bond yields while gold prices rallied, suggesting the unwinding of the “Trump trade” – a dominant market theme since the start of 2017 – may be back in play. This narrative faded from view yesterday, yielding the spotlight to “hard Brexit” fears and offering the US currency a lifeline as a haven amid risk aversion.

UK-born jitters may yet resurface as all eyes turn to a much-anticipated speech form Prime Minister Theresa May, which is being billed as her most significant policy statement yet on the exit from the EU. If she strikes a somewhat conciliatory tone – saying that while the government is prepared to leave the single market, this is not an explicit objective – sentiment may firm. This ought to spur on overnight moves.

Establishing “hard Brexit” as a goal may revive yesterday’s risk-off mood however. In this scenario, the US unit may reclaim some lost ground while the Japanese Yen extends an already impressive rally. Asian stocks declined, boosting the standby anti-risk unit. Besides the obvious casualty of the British Pound, the overtly sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars may suffer outsized losses.

December’s UK CPI data ought to pass with little fanfare. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to rise to 1.4 percent, the highest since August 2014. Yesterday’s comments from BOE Governor Mark Carney reinforced the sense that the central bank is far from set on whether it will decide its policy dilemma in favor of income or price growth. This means that today’s figures probably mean little for the near-term rates outlook. Furthermore, traders will almost certainly wait for Mrs May to speak before showing commitment.

Have questions? Join a Q&A webinar and ask them live!

Asia Session

Hard Brexit Fears May Derail Trump Trade Unwind as May Speaks

European Session

Hard Brexit Fears May Derail Trump Trade Unwind as May Speaks

** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES