US Dollar May Rise on Data But OPEC, Cabinet News Cloud Outlook

2016-11-30 06:21:00

Talking Points:

Yen falls as risk appetite firms, NZ Dollar gains on RBNZ comments
Aussie Dollar drops as ANZ CEO sounds the alarm about economy
US Dollar may rise on data but OPEC, cabinet news cloud outlook

The Yen underperformed as Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index advanced, sapping demand for the anti-risk currency. The New Zealand Dollar advanced alongside S&P 500 futures, hinting at firming risk appetite as the driver behind gains. Encouraging comments from RBNZ officials may have also helped after Governor Wheeler and Deputy Governor Spencer seemed to talk down near-term rate cut chances.

The Australian Dollar failed to capitalize however, dropping alongside the local S&P/ASX 200 equities benchmark. Australian government bonds declined in tandem, pointing to a broader deterioration in demand for AUD-denominated assets as the reason for Aussie selling. ANZ Bank CEO Shayne Elliott said “there are emerging signs of stress” in the economy, which may have triggered the rout.

Looking ahead, the US Dollar may find scope for gains after four days of losses. The expected Fed rate hike path may steepen further if the central bank’s favored PCE inflation gauge and the ADP estimate of jobs growth yield upbeat results, extending a recent run of upbeat US economic news-flow.

Headline risk remains elevated however. The likely response to confirmation or denial of rumors predicting the imminent naming of Steve Mnuchin as incoming US Treasury secretary is unclear for now. The market-wide implications of OPEC output cut deal negotiations are likewise clouded.

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Asia Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	ACT	EXP	PREV
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT P)	0.1%	0.0%	0.6%
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT P)	-1.3%	-1.3%	1.5%
0:00	NZD	ANZ Activity Outlook (NOV)	37.6	-	38.4
0:00	NZD	ANZ Business Confidence (NOV)	20.5	-	24.5
0:01	GBP	GfK Consumer Confidence (NOV)	-8	-4	-3
0:01	GBP	Lloyds Business Barometer (NOV)	32	-	37
0:10	NZD	RBNZ's Wheeler at Parliament Select Committee	-	-	-
0:30	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM) (OCT)	-12.6%	2.0%	-9.3%
0:30	AUD	Building Approvals (YoY) (OCT)	-24.9%	-6.2%	-6.8%
0:30	AUD	Private Sector Credit (MoM) (OCT)	0.5%	0.4%	0.4%
0:30	AUD	Private Sector Credit (YoY) (OCT)	5.3%	5.2%	5.4%
1:45	CNY	Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (NOV)	114.9	-	117.1
2:00	NZD	Money Supply M3 (YoY) (OCT)	7.1%	-	4.8%
4:00	JPY	Vehicle Production (YoY) (OCT)	-3.9%	-	1.4%
5:00	JPY	Housing Starts (YoY) (OCT)	13.7%	11.0%	10.0%
5:00	JPY	Annualized Housing Starts (OCT)	0.983m	0.964m	0.984m
5:00	JPY	Construction Orders (YoY) (OCT)	15.2%	-	16.30%
5:00	JPY	Small Business Confidence (NOV)	48.3	48.0	48.3

European Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	EXP	PREV	IMPACT
7:00	EUR	Germany Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT)	1.0%	-1.4%	Medium
7:00	EUR	Germany Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT)	1.0%	0.4%	Medium
7:00	CHF	UBS Consumption Indicator (OCT)	1.55	1.59	Low
7:00	GBP	Carney Publishes BOE Financial Stability Report	-	-	Medium
8:00	CHF	KOF Leading Indicator (NOV)	104	104.7	Low
8:55	EUR	German Unemployment Change (000's) (NOV)	-5k	-13k	Medium
8:55	EUR	German Unemployment Claims Rate SA (NOV)	6.0%	6.0%	Medium
10:00	EUR	Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (NOV)	0.6%	0.5%	High
10:00	EUR	Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (NOV A)	0.8%	0.8%	High
12:30	EUR	ECB's Mario Draghi Speaks in Madrid			Medium