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Australian Dollar Gains as "Trump Trade" Goes Into Reverse

Australian Dollar Gains as "Trump Trade" Goes Into Reverse

2016-11-22 06:39:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar gains as “Trump trade” retraces across markets
  • British Pound corrects lower following surge to a three-month high
  • Trump cabinet appointments may reboot post-election trend moves

The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade as US Treasury bond yields retreated, suggesting the move reflects continued digestion of the so-called “Trump trade”. The Aussie faced heavy selling pressure in the aftermath of the US presidential election amid speculation that grandiose fiscal stimulus championed by the President-elect will ramp up inflation and steepen the Fed rate hike cycle. This fueled a market-wide reallocation of portfolios over the past two weeks.

A lull in top-tier news-flow driving the post-election narrative this week appears to be offering stretched markets an opportunity for corrective retracement (as expected). The rates-sensitive Aussie appears to have capitalized accordingly, with the similarly higher-yielding Canadian Dollar following suit. Firming risk appetite across Asian bourses – where shares followed Wall Street upward – probably helped offer a lift to commodity-bloc currencies.

The British Pound faced broad-based selling pressure. A discrete catalyst for the move is not readily apparent. The move may have been corrective after yesterday’s sharp advance that brought the UK unit to the highest level in almost three months against an average of its top counterparts. Follow-through may prove limited however as traders withhold direction conviction ahead of the upcoming release of the UK Autumn Budget Statement.

Looking ahead, another quiet day on the European and US economic calendars opens the door for retracement of “Trump trade” moves to continue. This dynamic may be disrupted if the incoming US President unveils key appointments to the economic policy wing of his cabinet, with particular attention paid to who will be the next Treasury Secretary. The selection of a person that the markets deem reliable and capable of delivering on the incoming administration’s platform may reboot post-election trends.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

115.5

-

118.2

5:30

JPY

Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) (OCT)

-3.9%

-

-5.0%

5:30

JPY

Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (OCT)

-4.4%

-

-3.4%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

CHF

Trade Balance (OCT)

3.88b

4.37b

Medium

7:00

CHF

Exports Real (MoM) (OCT)

-

4.3%

Low

7:00

CHF

Imports Real (MoM) (OCT)

-

-3.3%

Low

7:45

AUD

RBA's Kent Speech at ABE Event in Sydney

Low

9:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (OCT)

-

13.3b

Low

9:30

GBP

Central Government NCR (OCT)

-

22.5b

Low

9:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (OCT)

6.0b

10.1b

Low

9:30

GBP

PSNB ex Banking Groups (OCT)

6.0b

10.6b

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (NOV)

-8

-17

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (NOV)

-

8

Low

11:30

GBP

BOE's Kristin Forbes Speaks in London

Medium

15:00

EUR

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (NOV A)

-7.8

-8

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0479

1.0549

1.0590

1.0619

1.0660

1.0689

1.0759

GBP/USD

1.2043

1.2241

1.2368

1.2439

1.2566

1.2637

1.2835

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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