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US Dollar May Gain More on Fed-Speak as Pound Ignores Claims Data

US Dollar May Gain More on Fed-Speak as Pound Ignores Claims Data

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar corrected lower in Asia as markets digested 7-day rally
  • Comments from Fed officials may continue to boost rate hike bets
  • British Pound unlikely to find strong lead in jobless claims report

The US Dollar corrected broadly lower in overnight trade having extended its winning streak for a seventh consecutive day in the prior session. The benchmark currency has been buoyed in the aftermath of the US presidential election amid speculation that the on-coming policy pivot will boost inflation and call for more aggressive Fed tightening. More of the same was on offer yesterday, with prices rising alongside US Treasury bond yields while the 2017 rate hike path priced into Fed Funds futures steepened further.

Fed-speak returns to the spotlight in the hours ahead, with scheduled remarks from central bank branch Presidents Jim Bullard (St. Louis), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis) and Patrick Harker (Philadelphia) on tap. Official commentary on offer since the election has generally endorsed the developing market consensus so far. Policymakers have maintained a cautiously hawkish tone, with several noting that boosting fiscal stimulus – a central part of President-elect Trump’s platform – would probably speed up the withdrawal of monetary support. More of the same from upcoming speakers may offer the greenback a further lift.

UK jobless claims data tops a lackluster European data docket. The figures seem unlikely to materially impact Bank of England policy expectations and so ought to pass mostly unnoticed by the British Pound. Indeed, BOE Governor Mark Carney stressed just yesterday that the central bank is firmly in wait-and-see mode as it waits to assess the extent of pass-through from Sterling weakness after the Brexit referendum on broader inflation trends. He added that October’s soft CPI data has not changed the Bank’s outlook.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
23:30AUDWestpac Leading Index (MoM) (OCT)0.06%-0.08%
23:50JPYHousing Loans (YoY) (3Q)2.7%-2.4%
0:30AUDWage Price Index (QoQ) (3Q)0.4%0.5%0.5%
0:30AUDWage Price Index (YoY) (3Q)1.9%2.0%2.1%
0:30AUDNew Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (OCT)-2.4%-2.4%
0:30AUDNew Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (OCT)1.2%-0.8%
2:00NZDNon Resident Bond Holdings (OCT)63.9%-65.0%

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXPPREVIMPACT
9:30GBPClaimant Count Rate (OCT)2.3%2.3%Medium
9:30GBPJobless Claims Change (OCT)2.0k0.7kMedium
9:30GBPAverage Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (SEP)2.4%2.3%Low
9:30GBPWeekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (SEP)2.4%2.3%Low
9:30GBPILO Unemployment Rate (3Mths) (SEP)4.9%4.9%Low
9:30GBPEmployment Change (3M/3M) (SEP)91k106kLow
10:00CHFCredit Suisse ZEW Survey Expectations (NOV)-5.2Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EUR/USD1.05471.06491.06851.07511.07871.08531.0955
GBP/USD1.21571.23061.23821.24551.25311.26041.2753

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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