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British Pound May Rise as UK CPI Data Keeps BOE Stimulus at Bay

British Pound May Rise as UK CPI Data Keeps BOE Stimulus at Bay

2016-11-15 06:49:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound may rise if UK CPI meaningfully surpasses expectations
  • German and Eurozone GDP revisions may not mean much for the Euro
  • US Dollar looks to Retail Sales data, Fed-speak to feed rate hike bets

UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to rise to 1.1 percent, the highest in two years. The Bank of England has clearly indicated its intention to look through a temporary price growth uptick driven by British Pound weakness following the Brexit referendum. However, the BOE has also said it will not stand idly by if the increase markedly tops expectations or proves sticky. On balance, this suggests a print broadly in line with consensus forecasts ought to pass with relatively little fanfare while an upside surprise may nudge Sterling upward.

A revised set of German third-quarter GDP figuresis expected to show a bit of a downgrade, with output adding 0.3 percent versus the 0.4 percent gain reported in initial estimates. An update of the region-wide GDP metric for the same period is seen confirming the flash reading of 0.3 percent. The implications of such outcomes for near-term ECB policy trends seem relatively limited. This means that – absent sharp deviations from baseline forecasts – the Euro ought to pay little attention to the results. The ZEW Survey of investor confidence may be noteworthy to the extent that it reveals the level of concern about uncertainties linked to Brexit as well as the US presidential election. Here too however, the near-term FX impact may be minimal.

Later in the day, the spotlight will turn to October’s US Retail Sales report as well as comments from Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo, Vice Chair Stanly Fischer and Boston branch President Eric Rosengren. US economic news-flow has improved relative to consensus forecasts over the past month. More of the same this time around coupled with now-familiar cautiously hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials may help further steepen the priced-in rate hike path. Needless to say, such a scenario will probably bode well for the US Dollar.

Financial markets took on a corrective tone in overnight trade. The US Dollar retraced downward having climbed to levels unseen in 9 months against an average of its major counterparts in yesterday’s session. The anti-risk Japanese Yen recovered having borne a good deal of selling pressure amid surging risk appetite in the aftermath of last week’s US presidential election.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:30

NZD

Performance Services Index (OCT)

56.3

-

54.2

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

118.2

-

117.8

0:30

AUD

RBA Nov. Meeting Minutes

-

-

-

4:00

JPY

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (OCT)

-0.6%

-

40.9%

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (OCT F)

-8.9%

-

-8.9%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

Germany GDP SA (QoQ) (3Q P)

0.3%

0.4%

High

7:00

EUR

Germany GDP WDA (YoY) (3Q P)

1.8%

1.8%

High

7:00

EUR

Germany GDP NSA (YoY) (3Q P)

1.6%

3.1%

High

7:45

EUR

France CPI (MoM) (OCT F)

0.0%

0.0%

Low

7:45

EUR

France CPI (YoY) (OCT F)

0.4%

0.4%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italy GDP WDA (QoQ) (3Q P)

0.2%

0.0%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italy GDP WDA (YoY) (3Q P)

0.8%

0.8%

Medium

9:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (OCT)

0.3%

0.2%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (OCT)

1.1%

1.0%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI Core (YoY) (OCT)

1.4%

1.5%

High

9:30

GBP

RPI (MoM) (OCT)

0.2%

0.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

RPI (YoY) (OCT)

2.3%

2.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (OCT)

2.4%

2.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (MoM) (OCT)

2.0%

0.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (YoY) (OCT)

9.3%

7.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (MoM) (OCT)

0.4%

0.2%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (YoY) (OCT)

1.8%

1.2%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (MoM) (OCT)

0.1%

0.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) (OCT)

1.6%

1.4%

Low

9:30

GBP

House Price Index (YoY) (SEP)

8.1%

8.4%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Trade Balance SA (SEP)

22.1b

23.3b

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Trade Balance NSA (SEP)

22.5b

18.4b

Low

10:00

EUR

Germany ZEW Survey Current Situation (NOV)

61.6

59.5

Medium

10:00

EUR

Germany ZEW Survey Expectations (NOV)

8.1

6.2

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations (NOV)

-

12.3

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP SA (QoQ) (3Q P)

0.3%

0.3%

High

10:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP SA (YoY) (3Q P)

1.6%

1.6%

High

10:00

GBP

BOE's Carney at Treasury Committee

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0478

1.0622

1.0680

1.0766

1.0824

1.0910

1.1054

GBP/USD

1.2169

1.2343

1.2417

1.2517

1.2591

1.2691

1.2865

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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