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US Dollar Extends Gains as Fed Commentary Comes Back in Focus

US Dollar Extends Gains as Fed Commentary Comes Back in Focus

2016-11-14 07:16:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar continues to rise as post-election trends remain in play
  • Japanese Yen declines as Nikkei gains, denting anti-risk demand
  • Sanguine, hawkish-leaning Fed-speak may add fuel to USD rally

Trends prevailing after Republican nominee Donald Trump unexpectedly won the US presidential election remained in play at the start of the trading week. The markets are betting that the on-coming US policy pivot may boost corporate earnings and stoke inflation. The former conclusion has proven supportive for share prices while the latter fueled speculation of a steeper Fed rate hike trajectory, driving the US Dollar upward.

At first blush, overnight price action appeared to deliver more of the same. The greenback pushed higher against its major currency counterparts, moving alongside surging US Treasury bond yields. The anti-risk the Yen proved weakest on the session as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index followed S&P 500 futures upward.

The upbeat mood was not universally felt however. Indeed, the overall MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equities gauge declined amid worries about the President-elect’s position on free trade. Investors fear that the emergence of new trade barriers will hurt export-oriented emerging market economies as well as their commodity-producingsuppliers.

Looking ahead, a light offering on the economic data front seems likely to put Fed-speak in the spotlight. Comments from Rob Kaplan, Jeff Lacker and John Williams – Presidents of the US central bank’s Dallas, Richmond and San Francisco branches – are due to cross the wires. Rhetoric echoing the cautiously hawkish tone prevailing before the election may feed continuation of moves that have emerged thereafter.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

20:30

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (OCT)

-14.2%

-

-9.5%

23:50

JPY

GDP SA (QoQ) (3Q P)

0.5%

0.2%

0.2%

23:50

JPY

GDP Annualized SA (QoQ) (3Q P)

2.2%

0.8%

0.7%

23:50

JPY

GDP Nominal SA (QoQ) (3Q P)

0.2%

-0.1%

0.1%

23:50

JPY

GDP Deflator (YoY) (3Q P)

-0.1%

0.3%

0.7%

23:50

JPY

GDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (3Q P)

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

23:50

JPY

GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (3Q P)

0.0%

0.2%

-0.1%

0:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (NOV)

-1.1%

-

0.9%

0:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (NOV)

4.5%

-

4.2%

0:30

AUD

Credit Card Purchases (SEP)

-

-

A$26.8b

0:30

AUD

Credit Card Balances (SEP)

-

-

A$51.3b

1:00

JPY

BOJ Kuroda speaks in Nagoya

-

-

-

2:00

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT)

6.1%

6.2%

6.1%

2:00

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (OCT)

6.0%

6.1%

6.0%

2:00

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT)

10.0%

10.7%

10.7%

2:00

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (OCT)

10.3%

10.4%

10.4%

2:00

CNY

Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (OCT)

8.3%

8.2%

8.2%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP F)

0.6%

-

0.0%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP F)

1.5%

-

0.9%

4:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (SEP)

-2.0%

-

2.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (OCT)

0.2%

0.3%

Low

8:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (OCT)

-0.1%

-0.1%

Low

9:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits

-

518.6b

Low

9:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits

-

451.8b

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production SA (MoM) (SEP)

-1.0%

1.6%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production WDA (YoY) (SEP)

0.9%

1.8%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0683

1.0776

1.0816

1.0869

1.0909

1.0962

1.1055

GBP/USD

1.2303

1.2451

1.2523

1.2599

1.2671

1.2747

1.2895

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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