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US Dollar Response Mixed as Trump Wins US Presidential Election

US Dollar Response Mixed as Trump Wins US Presidential Election

2016-11-09 08:05:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar gains on commodity FX, drops elsewhere as Trump wins Presidency
  • Japanese Yen set to post largest daily gain since Brexit vote amid risk aversion
  • Sentiment-linked assets likely to remain under heavy pressure in the near term

The financial markets are reeling as results from the US presidential election point to a victory for Republican nominee Donald Trump. The Associated Press is projecting that that Mr Trump has prevailed in Wisconsin, giving him the 270 electoral votes needed for a win. A separate report from NBC News has it that his rival Hillary Clinton has called him to concede the contest having refused to do so earlier even as the math looked increasingly insurmountable.

The anti-risk Japanese Yen is soaring against all of its major counterparts, poised to secure its biggest one-day gain since the June 24 rally inspired by the outcome of the Brexit referendum. The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars are bearing the brunt of selling pressure as risk appetite crumbles market-wide. Stocks plunged in Asia and index futures point to continued blood-letting as European and US bourses come online.

The US Dollar has put in a mixed performance. Prices deferred to sentiment trends when compared against currencies at both ends of the risk on/off spectrum, with the greenback rising against commodity-bloc currencies and falling against the Yen. Relative policy bets appeared to be in focus elsewhere however. The US unit falling against the Euro and British Pound as the increasingly remote chance of a December Fed rate hike undermined its appeal given ECB and BOEstandstill.

Fallout from the election outcome will almost certainly overwhelm other considerations in the hours ahead. As noted previously, Ms Clinton represented the “status quo” candidate that represented continuity and predictability for investors, whereas Mr Trump is more an unknown quantity. This means investors will probably continue to trim risk exposure until the dust settles and portfolios can be soberly reallocated, suggesting overnight trends are poised to continue in the near term.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Card Spending Retail (MoM) (OCT)

0.6%

0.4%

1.9%

21:45

NZD

Card Spending Total (MoM) (OCT)

0.6%

-

2.0%

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf Index (NOV)

101.3

-

102.4

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf SA (MoM) (NOV)

-1.1%

-

1.1%

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Balance (SEP)

¥1821.0b

¥2020.0b

¥2000.8b

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Adjusted (SEP)

¥1477.3b

¥1630.0b

¥1975.7b

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance BoP Basis (SEP)

¥642.4b

¥668.8b

¥243.2b

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Incl Trusts (YoY) (OCT)

2.4%

2.2%

2.2%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Ex-Trusts (YoY) (OCT)

2.4%

-

2.2%

1:30

CNY

CPI (YoY) (OCT)

2.1%

2.1%

1.9%

1:30

CNY

PPI (YoY) (OCT)

1.2%

0.9%

0.1%

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (OCT)

-7.95%

-

-3.41%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Current (OCT)

46.2

44.4

44.8

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (OCT)

49.0

47.8

48.5

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

9:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn (SEP)

-£11363

-£12112

Low

9:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn (SEP)

-£3450

-£3756

Low

9:30

GBP

Trade Balance (SEP)

-£3950

-£4733

Low

10:00

EUR

European Commission Economic Forecasts

-

-

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0918

1.0976

1.1001

1.1034

1.1059

1.1092

1.1150

GBP/USD

1.2235

1.2314

1.2347

1.2393

1.2426

1.2472

1.2551

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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