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US Dollar May Rise as Fed Sets Stage for December Rate Hike

US Dollar May Rise as Fed Sets Stage for December Rate Hike

2016-11-02 05:02:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Markets to look past European data docket, focus on Fed policy decision
  • US Dollar to rise if FOMC statement boosts December rate hike chances
  • Yen rises, Aussie falls in risk-off trade as NZ Dollar gains on jobs report

Currency markets are likely to look past a relatively quiet European economic calendar to focus on Federal Reserve rate decision due later in the day. A change in policy looks exceedingly unlikely but traders are keen to dissect the FOMC committee’s statement to see if Chair Yellen and company will demonstrably signal that an interest rate hike is on tap in December.

As it stands, investors price in the probability of a December rate hike at 68 percent. A hawkish policy statement matching the tone of recent Fed rhetoric coupled with steady dissent from pro-hike officials may boost conviction, sending the US Dollar broadly higher.

The anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed while the sentiment-geared Australian and Canadian Dollars traded lower as risk appetite soured in Asian trade. Regional shares followed a rout on Wall Street, with regional bourses losing more than 1 percent on average. The New Zealand Dollar diverged from its commodity bloc counterparts, finding support in upbeat labor-market data.

See the schedule of upcoming webinars and join us LIVE to follow the financial markets!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Unemployment Rate (3Q)

4.9%

5.1%

5.0%

21:45

NZD

Employment Change (QoQ) (3Q)

1.4%

0.5%

2.4%

21:45

NZD

Employment Change (YoY) (3Q)

6.1%

5.4%

4.5%

21:45

NZD

Participation Rate (3Q)

70.1%

69.7%

69.7%

21:45

NZD

Pvt Wages Ex Overtime (QoQ) (3Q)

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

21:45

NZD

Pvt Wages Inc Overtime (QoQ) (3Q)

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

21:45

NZD

Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (3Q)

0.3%

1.0%

0.8%

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base (YoY) (OCT)

22.1%

-

22.7%

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base End of period (OCT)

¥417.6t

-

¥412.8t

0:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (OCT)

-1.7%

-

-1.8%

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (SEP)

-8.7%

-3.0%

-1.8%

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (SEP)

-6.4%

2.1%

10.3%

2:00

NZD

2Yr Inflation Expectation (4Q)

1.68%

-

1.65%

5:00

JPY

Consumer Confidence Index (OCT)

42.3

42.6

43.0

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

GBP

Nationwide House Px (YoY) (OCT)

4.9%

5.3%

Medium

7:00

GBP

Nationwide House Px (MoM) (OCT)

0.2%

0.3%

Medium

7:00

CHF

UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (3Q)

-

1.32

Low

8:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (OCT)

51.4

51.0

Low

8:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (OCT F)

51.3

51.3

Low

8:55

EUR

Germany Unemployment Change (000's) (OCT)

-1k

1k

Medium

8:55

EUR

Germany Unemployment Claims Rate SA (OCT)

6.1%

6.1%

Medium

8:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (OCT F)

55.1

55.1

Medium

9:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (OCT F)

53.3

53.3

Medium

9:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (OCT)

51.8

52.3

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0810

1.0919

1.0987

1.1028

1.1096

1.1137

1.1246

GBP/USD

1.2095

1.2169

1.2206

1.2243

1.2280

1.2317

1.2391

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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