Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
US Dollar May Rise as Fed Sets Stage for December Rate Hike

US Dollar May Rise as Fed Sets Stage for December Rate Hike

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • Markets to look past European data docket, focus on Fed policy decision
  • US Dollar to rise if FOMC statement boosts December rate hike chances
  • Yen rises, Aussie falls in risk-off trade as NZ Dollar gains on jobs report

Currency markets are likely to look past a relatively quiet European economic calendar to focus on Federal Reserve rate decision due later in the day. A change in policy looks exceedingly unlikely but traders are keen to dissect the FOMC committee’s statement to see if Chair Yellen and company will demonstrably signal that an interest rate hike is on tap in December.

As it stands, investors price in the probability of a December rate hike at 68 percent. A hawkish policy statement matching the tone of recent Fed rhetoric coupled with steady dissent from pro-hike officials may boost conviction, sending the US Dollar broadly higher.

The anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed while the sentiment-geared Australian and Canadian Dollars traded lower as risk appetite soured in Asian trade. Regional shares followed a rout on Wall Street, with regional bourses losing more than 1 percent on average. The New Zealand Dollar diverged from its commodity bloc counterparts, finding support in upbeat labor-market data.

See the schedule of upcoming webinars and join us LIVE to follow the financial markets!

Asia Session

21:45NZDUnemployment Rate (3Q)4.9%5.1%5.0%
21:45NZDEmployment Change (QoQ) (3Q)1.4%0.5%2.4%
21:45NZDEmployment Change (YoY) (3Q)6.1%5.4%4.5%
21:45NZDParticipation Rate (3Q)70.1%69.7%69.7%
21:45NZDPvt Wages Ex Overtime (QoQ) (3Q)0.4%0.4%0.4%
21:45NZDPvt Wages Inc Overtime (QoQ) (3Q)0.4%0.4%0.4%
21:45NZDAverage Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (3Q)0.3%1.0%0.8%
23:50JPYMonetary Base (YoY) (OCT)22.1%-22.7%
23:50JPYMonetary Base End of period (OCT)¥417.6t-¥412.8t
0:01GBPBRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (OCT)-1.7%--1.8%
0:30AUDBuilding Approvals (MoM) (SEP)-8.7%-3.0%-1.8%
0:30AUDBuilding Approvals (YoY) (SEP)-6.4%2.1%10.3%
2:00NZD2Yr Inflation Expectation (4Q)1.68%-1.65%
5:00JPYConsumer Confidence Index (OCT)42.342.643.0

European Session

7:00GBPNationwide House Px (YoY) (OCT)4.9%5.3%Medium
7:00GBPNationwide House Px (MoM) (OCT)0.2%0.3%Medium
7:00CHFUBS Real Estate Bubble Index (3Q)-1.32Low
8:45EURMarkit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (OCT)51.451.0Low
8:50EURMarkit France Mfg PMI (OCT F)51.351.3Low
8:55EURGermany Unemployment Change (000's) (OCT)-1k1kMedium
8:55EURGermany Unemployment Claims Rate SA (OCT)6.1%6.1%Medium
8:55EURMarkit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (OCT F)55.155.1Medium
9:00EURMarkit Eurozone Mfg PMI (OCT F)53.353.3Medium
9:30GBPMarkit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (OCT)51.852.3Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.