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Pound, US Dollar May Prove Noncommittal on PMI and ISM Data

Pound, US Dollar May Prove Noncommittal on PMI and ISM Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound, US Dollar may prove noncommittal on PMI, ISM data
  • Japanese Yen falls as sentiment firms in Asia, saps anti-risk demand
  • Aussie Dollar outperforms as RBA dents rate cut speculation further

October’s UK manufacturing PMI survey headlines the data docket in European trading hours. Economic news-flow has softened relative to consensus forecasts over the past month, opening the door for the possibility of a downside surprise. Such an outcome may feed fears that cooling in wake of the Brexit referendum is beginning to emerge, weighing on the British Pound.

Later in the day, the analogous US ISM manufacturing report will enter the spotlight. The outcome may boost the US Dollar if the past two weeks’ cautious improvement in US data outcomes continues. Follow-through may prove limited for Sterling and the greenback however, with investors probably unwilling to commit to a strong directional bias as FOMC and BOE rate decisions loom ahead.

The Japanese Yen underperformed sentiment brightened in Asian trade, sapping demand for the anti-risk unit. Commodity-bloc FX followed regional shares upward, with the Australian Dollar leading the way after a somewhat upbeat RBA policy announcement dented rate cut chances further. Indeed, the currency surged alongside front-end bond yields after Governor Philip Lowe’s statement crossed the wires.

Are FX markets matching DailyFX analysts’ bets so far in Q4? See our forecast and find out!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (OCT)

50.9

-

49.8

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

114.1

-

113.6

23:00

AUD

CoreLogic House Px (MoM) (OCT)

0.5%

-

1.0%

23:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (OCT)

12.7%

-

14.3%

0:30

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (OCT F)

51.4

-

51.7

1:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (OCT)

51.2

50.3

50.4

1:00

CNY

Non-manufacturing PMI (OCT)

54.0

-

53.7

1:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Mfg (OCT)

51.2

50.1

50.1

2:55

JPY

BOJ Policy Rate

-0.10%

-0.10%

-0.10%

3:30

AUD

RBA Cash Rate Target

1.50%

1.50%

1.50%

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (OCT)

0.8%

-

3.7%

5:30

AUD

Commodity Index AUD (OCT)

100.2

-

92.9

5:30

AUD

Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (OCT)

16.0%

-

3.9%

6:30

JPY

BOJ’s Kuroda Holds Press Conference

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:15

CHF

Retail Sales Real (YoY) (SEP)

-2.2% (A)

-3.0%

Low

8:30

CHF

PMI Manufacturing (OCT)

54.7 (A)

53.2

Medium

9:30

GBP

Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA (OCT)

54.5

55.4

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0853

1.0912

1.0946

1.0971

1.1005

1.1030

1.1089

GBP/USD

1.1995

1.2103

1.2172

1.2211

1.2280

1.2319

1.2427

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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