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Pound May Weaken as BOE Governor Carney Testifies on Brexit

Pound May Weaken as BOE Governor Carney Testifies on Brexit

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound may decline as Carney testifies on Brexitto House of Lords
  • Euro unlikely to find lasting cues in IFO data, Draghi comments in focus
  • US consumer confidence data, Fed-speak to inform rate hike speculation

An appearance from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney in the House of Lords is in focus in European trading hours. The central bank chief will be questioned about the consequences of the Brexit referendum and policymakers’ response to it.

The economy has proven to be somewhat more resilient than officials expected in the four months after the vote but recent worries about a “hard” break that sees the UK lose access to the EU single market have put markets on tenterhooks. The British Pound may come under pressure if Carney is pressed to expound on the policy response to such a scenario, which is very likely to beckon stimulus expansion.

Comments from ECB President Mario Draghi are also on tap and may offer another opportunity to reiterate that the central bank is not looking to taper its QE effort in the near term. The German IFO survey of business confidence is also on tap but the expected improvement is unlikely trigger a lasting response from the Euro considering such a result’s limited implications for near-term monetary policy trends.

Fed rate hike speculation will retake the spotlight later in the day as October’s US Consumer Confidence report and comments from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart cross the wires. As it stands, the markets are pricing in a 70.9 percent probability of an interest rate hike in December. US Dollar follow-through may be limited as traders await Friday’s third-quarter GDP print before showing commitment.

Where are financial markets heading in the fourth quarter? See our forecast and find out!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (OCT 23)

113.6

-

117.8

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

08:00

EUR

German IFO - Business Climate (OCT)

109.6

109.5

Medium

08:00

EUR

German IFO - Current Assessment (OCT)

114.9

114.7

Medium

08:00

EUR

German IFO - Expectations (OCT)

104.5

104.5

Medium

14:35

GBP

BOE’s Carney Appears at House of Lords

-

-

High

15:30

EUR

ECB President Draghi Speaks in Berlin

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0801

1.0841

1.0861

1.0881

1.0901

1.0921

1.0961

GBP/USD

1.2098

1.2161

1.2200

1.2224

1.2263

1.2287

1.2350

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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