British Pound Swoons, US Dollar May Extend Gains on Jobs Data
- British Pound swoons France’s Hollande urges painful Brexit bargain
- Commodity currencies fall, Yen outperforms amid risk aversion in Asia
- US Dollar may extend gains as jobs data reinforces Fed rate hike bets
The British Pound sank in early Asian trade, at one point losing as much as 7.5 percent against an average of its top counterparts. The move began just as a Financial Times (FT) article quoting Francois Hollande crossed the wires. Referring to the outcome of the Brexit referendum and recent strong-worded rhetoric from UK Prime Minister Theresa May, the French President argued that the EU must be as tough as possible on its neighbor across the English Channel.
“There must be a threat… a risk…a price”, Hollande said.“ If not…other countries would want to leave the EU to get the supposed advantages without the obligations.” Thin liquidity before the trading open on most Asian bourses probably amplified the move. The magnitude of the drop and the violent recovery thereafter – prices erased more than three quarters of the move within 10 minutes – suggests this is not the whole story however. Newswires have speculated that the participation of trading algorithms compounded volatility.
Shellshock after the Pound fiasco appeared to translate into wider risk aversion overnight. The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars tracked Asian stock benchmarks and S&P 500 futures downward, with the Kiwi underperforming amid swelling RBNZ easing speculation. Markets now price the probability of a rate cut at next month’s policy meeting at 66 percent. The anti-risk Japanese Yen and US Dollar outperformed.
The greenback may continue to build higher as US Employment data is released. The economy is expected to have added 175k jobs in September, up from 151k in the prior month. An increase of more than 143k would keep the three-month average at 190k, a threshold identified by Fed Chair Yellen as supportive of a rate hike in 2016. This seems to mean that anything short of deep disappointment will reinforce already swelling tightening probability. The priced-in chance of an increase in December is now at 63.6 percent.
Losing money trading in the FX market? This might be why.
|22:30||AUD||AiG Perf of Construction Index (SEP)||51.4||-||46.6|
|23:50||JPY||Official Reserve Assets (SEP)||$1260.1b||-||$1256.1b|
|00:00||JPY||Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (AUG)||-0.1%||0.4%||1.2%|
|00:00||JPY||Real Cash Earnings (YoY) (AUG)||0.5%||-||1.8%|
|01:31||CNY||Foreign Reserves (SEP)||$3166.4b||$3180.0b||$3185.2b|
|05:00||JPY||Leading Index CI (AUG P)||101.2||101.6||100.0|
|05:00||JPY||Coincident Index (AUG P)||112.0||111.8||112.1|
|06:00||EUR||German Industrial Production (MoM) (AUG)||2.5% (A)||-1.5%||Medium|
|06:00||EUR||German Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG)||1.9% (A)||-1.3%||Medium|
|07:00||CHF||Foreign Currency Reserves (SEP)||628.0b (A)||626.9b||Low|
|07:30||GBP||Halifax House Prices (MoM) (SEP)||0.0%||-0.2%||Medium|
|07:30||GBP||Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year (SEP)||5.9%||6.9%||Medium|
|08:30||GBP||Industrial Production (MoM) (AUG)||0.1%||0.1%||Medium|
|08:30||GBP||Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG)||1.3%||2.1%||Medium|
|08:30||GBP||Manufacturing Production (MoM) (AUG)||0.4%||-0.9%||Medium|
|08:30||GBP||Manufacturing Production (YoY) (AUG)||0.8%||0.8%||Medium|
|08:30||GBP||Visible Trade Balance (£, Mn) (AUG)||-11250||-11764||Medium|
|08:30||GBP||Trade Balance Non EU (£, Mn) (AUG)||-3700||-4188||Low|
|08:30||GBP||Trade Balance (£, Mn) (AUG)||-4000||-4502||Low|
|13:00||EUR||ECB’s Praet Speaks on Panel in Washington||-||-||Low|
|14:00||GBP||NIESR GDP Estimate (SEP)||-||0.3%||Medium|
|CCY||Supp 3||Supp 2||Supp 1||Pivot Point||Res 1||Res 2||Res 3|
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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