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Yen Falls on OPEC Deal, US Dollar May Rise on Fed Rates Outlook

Yen Falls on OPEC Deal, US Dollar May Rise on Fed Rates Outlook

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Yen sinks as OPEC output cut deal boosts market-wide risk appetite
  • Euro unlikely to find meaningful support in German inflation uptick
  • US Dollar may rise as Fed-speak, GDP revision boost rate hike bets

The Japanese Yen plunged as stocks soared in Asian trade, undermining demand for the anti-risk currency. Energy shares led the way higher after OPEC agreed on the outlines of a deal to cap output in a range of 32.5-33 million barrels per day. Implementation details – including the assignment of output targets for individual cartel members – remain undecided and will be addressed at the group’s meeting in November.

The preliminary set of September’s German CPI figures is expected to show that the headline year-on-year inflation accelerated to 0.6 percent, the highest in 16 months. The ECB’s firmly dovish posture suggests an upside result may pass with little fanfare however. On the other hand, a disappointing print that beckons stimulus expansion may apply downward pressure on the Euro.

Fed-speak returns to the spotlight later in the day as another, with remarks from three branch Presidents (George, Harker and Lockhart) as well as Governor Powell in focus. Rhetoric echoing Chair Yellen’s near-promise of a December rate hike – a position she reiterated yesterday – is likely to boost the US Dollar. An expected revision of the second-quarter GDP growth rate from 1.1 to 1.3 percent may amplify this dynamic.

Losing money trading in the FX market? This might be why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (AUG)

-2.1%

-1.7%

-0.2%

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG)

-1.1%

-0.6%

1.5%

23:50

JPY

Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales (AUG)

-3.6%

-2.6%

0.6%

00:00

USD

Fed's George Speaks to Minority Bankers

-

-

-

01:30

AUD

Job vacancies (AUG)

4.6%

-

-2.1%

06:35

JPY

Kuroda Speaks at Security Association Conference

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (000's) (SEP)

-5k

-7k

Medium

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Claims Rate SA (SEP)

6.1%

6.1%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (AUG)

1.4b

1.2b

Low

08:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (AUG)

2.6b

2.7b

Low

08:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (AUG)

60.2k

60.9k

Medium

08:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (AUG)

-

1.2%

Low

08:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (AUG)

-

3.9%

Low

08:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (AUG)

-

14.7%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Economic Confidence (SEP)

103.5

103.5

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Business Climate Indicator (SEP)

0.05

0.02

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Confidence (SEP)

-4.2

-4.4

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Services Confidence (SEP)

10.0

10.0

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (SEP F)

-8.2

-8.2

Medium

09:00

EUR

ECB's Praet Speaks in Halle, Germany

-

-

Low

12:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (SEP P)

0.0%

0.0%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (SEP P)

0.6%

0.4%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1102

1.1157

1.1187

1.1212

1.1242

1.1267

1.1322

GBP/USD

1.2906

1.2958

1.2989

1.3010

1.3041

1.3062

1.3114

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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