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Yen Soars as Sentiment Deteriorates Across Financial Markets

Yen Soars as Sentiment Deteriorates Across Financial Markets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Yen gains as BOJ, Deutsche Bank drive broad-based risk aversion
  • Brexit-linked news flow pulls Pound into wider risk on/off dynamics
  • Comments from ECB’s Draghi, Fed officials compound negativity

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade as stocks slumped in Asian trade, offering support for the anti-risk currency. The deterioration in investors’ mood began to gain momentum after a speech by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The central bank head said pushing the interest rate on excess reserves deeper into negative territory will be the main tool to increase easing under the BOJ’s new policy regime. The markets have been skeptical of the approach since it was introduced earlier in the year.

News out of Germany compounded risk-off dynamics. Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out state assistance for Deutsche Bank and refused to lobby on the lender’s behalf with US regulators ahead of elections in 2017, according to a report from Focus magazine. The US Justice Department may seek as much as $14 billion in sanctions linked the involvement of Deutsche’s MBS arm in the US mortgage crisis that triggered the Great Recession in 2008.

Interestingly, the British Pound suffered outsized losses alongside the typically sentiment-geared Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars as European shares followed Asian bourses downward. A number of Brexit-related headlines emerged over the weekend which may have contributed to a broadly toxic environment and pulled Sterling into risk on/off dynamics. Perhaps most notably, a survey from KPMG said three-quarters of large companies now plan to relocate some or all UK-based operations.

Looking ahead, a steep slump in S&P 500 futures ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street hints the dour mood aims to carry forward. Negativity may be compounded if the day’s Fed-speak mimics the hawkish posture of Chair Yellen, who all but promised tightening in December. References to Brexit’s negative knock-on effects on Eurozone growth in a speech from ECB President Draghi may also damage confidence.

What do retail traders buy/sell decisions hint about on-coming market trends? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance (AUG)

-1265m

-735m

-433m

21:45

NZD

Exports (AUG)

3.39b

3.60b

3.96b

21:45

NZD

Imports (AUG)

4.65b

4.30b

4.40b

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD (AUG)

-3131m

-2675m

-3034m

23:50

JPY

BOJ Flow of Funds

-

-

-

05:00

JPY

Leading Index CI (JUL F)

100.0

-

100.0

05:00

JPY

Coincident Index (JUL F)

112.1

-

112.8

05:30

JPY

BOJ Kuroda Speaks in Osaka

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

08:00

EUR

German IFO - Business Climate (SEP)

109.5 (A)

106.3

Medium

08:00

EUR

German IFO - Current Assessment (SEP)

114.7 (A)

112.9

Medium

08:00

EUR

German IFO - Expectations (SEP)

104.5 (A)

100.1

Medium

08:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits

517.2b (A)

516.7b

Low

08:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits

516.7b (A)

438.7b

Low

08:00

EUR

Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)

-0.3% (A)

0.3%

Low

08:00

EUR

Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)

-0.2% (A)

0.8%

Low

08:30

GBP

BBA Loans for House Purchase (AUG)

36997 (A)

37672

Low

09:30

CHF

SNB's Jordan Speaks in Geneva

-

-

Low

12:30

EUR

ECB Adviser Angeloni Speaks in London

-

-

Low

13:15

EUR

ECB's Coeure Speaks in Rome

-

-

Low

13:45

EUR

ECB Publishes Weekly QE Details

-

-

Low

13:50

GBP

BOE Bond-Buying Operation Results

-

-

Low

14:00

EUR

ECB’s Draghi Speaks at EU Parliament

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1126

1.1173

1.1200

1.1220

1.1247

1.1267

1.1314

GBP/USD

1.2644

1.2817

1.2891

1.2990

1.3064

1.3163

1.3336

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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