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US Dollar to Rise if Fed-Speak Cements December Rate Hike Bets

US Dollar to Rise if Fed-Speak Cements December Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar to rise if hawkish Fed-speak cements December rate hike bets
  • Euro may decline as soft PMI surveys rekindle fears of Brexit contagion
  • NZ Dollar falls on RBNZ view, Pound down as Article 50 trigger nears

The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising against all of its G10 FX counterparts in a move that appeared corrective following losses in the wake of the FOMC rate decision. The greenback fell as investors focused onthe flattening of the central bank’s projected rate hike path in the immediate aftermath of the policy announcement.

The benchmark unit may continue to build higher into the end of the trading week if scheduled comments from Philadelphia, Cleveland and Atlanta Fed Presidents Harker, Mester and Lockhart echo Chair Yellen’s hawkish tone. The central bank chief all but promised tightening in December at the press conference following this week’s meeting of the rate-setting committee (as expected).

The preliminary set of September’s Eurozone PMI surveys headlines the data docket in European hours. News-flow out of the currency bloc has increasingly deteriorated relative to expectations over the past month, opening the door for soft results. Such outcomes may rekindle worries about the cooling effect of uncertainty following the Brexit referendum, sending the Euro lower.

The New Zealand Dollar lagged the majors in Asian trade, falling alongside front-end bond yields to suggest the move marked follow-through on yesterday’s dovish RBNZ policy announcement. The British Pound also came under pressure after Foreign Secretary Johnson said the UK plans to activate Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon “by the early part of next year”, formally starting the Brexit process (although sources within the Prime Minister’s office suggested she hasn’t endorsed this timeline).

Is picking price direction most important for successful trading? See our study to find out!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

00:30

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (SEP P)

50.3

-

49.5

1:45

CNY

MNI Business Indicator (SEP)

55.8

-

54.1

4:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL)

0.3%

0.2%

1.0%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:10

EUR

Riksbank's Ingves Speaks at ESRB Conf.

-

-

Low

06:45

EUR

ECB's Constancio Chairs Panel at ESRB Conf.

-

-

Low

06:45

EUR

France GDP (QoQ) (2Q F)

0.0%

0.0%

Medium

06:45

EUR

France GDP (YoY) (2Q F)

1.4%

1.4%

Medium

07:00

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (SEP P)

48.5

48.3

Medium

07:00

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (SEP P)

52.0

52.3

Medium

07:00

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (SEP P)

51.8

51.9

Medium

07:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (SEP P)

53.1

53.6

High

07:30

EUR

Markit Germany Services PMI (SEP P)

52.1

51.7

High

07:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (SEP P)

53.6

53.3

High

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (SEP P)

51.5

51.7

High

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (SEP P)

52.8

52.8

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1073

1.1145

1.1176

1.1217

1.1248

1.1289

1.1361

GBP/USD

1.289

1.2983

1.303

1.3076

1.3123

1.3169

1.3262

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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