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US Dollar Falls Amid Pre-Positioning Before FOMC Rate Decision

US Dollar Falls Amid Pre-Positioning Before FOMC Rate Decision

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar corrects lower after Friday’s surge in the wake of firm CPI data
  • Commodity currencies rise with S&P 500 futures as risk appetite recovers
  • Overnight trends likely to carry forward but lasting follow-through unlikely

The US Dollar traded broadly lower overnight in a move that looked to be corrective following the surge triggered by better-than-expected CPI data on Friday. The yields- and sentiment-sensitive Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed as S&P 500 futures rose and Treasury bond yields edged lower, seemingly reflecting moderation in the “hawkish Fed” narrative.

A quiet economic calendar in European and US trading hours suggests Asia-session trends may find few barriers to continuation. Significant follow-through seems unlikely however, with traders probably unwilling to commit to a firm directional bias ahead of this week’s pivotal monetary policy announcements from the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve.

Losing money trading in the FX market? This might be why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

Westpac Consumer Confidence (3Q)

108

-

106

22:30

NZD

Performance Services Index (AUG)

57.9

-

54.5

23:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (SEP)

0.7%

-

-1.2%

23:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (SEP)

4.0%

-

4.1%

01:30

CNY

China August Property Prices

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

08:00

EUR

Current Account SA (JUL)

-

28.2b

Low

08:00

EUR

Current Account NSA (JUL)

-

37.6b

Low

08:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits (SEP 16)

-

515.8b

Low

08:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits (SEP 16)

-

438.6b

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (MoM) (JUL)

-

0.0%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (YoY) (JUL)

-

0.6%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0985

1.1085

1.1120

1.1185

1.1220

1.1285

1.1385

GBP/USD

1.2583

1.2833

1.2917

1.3083

1.3167

1.3333

1.3583

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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