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Pound May Ignore UK CPI Data as Euro Falls on German ZEW Miss

Pound May Ignore UK CPI Data as Euro Falls on German ZEW Miss

Talking Points:

  • British Pound may ignore UK CPI gain on limited BOE impact
  • Euro may fall if German ZEW survey falls short of expectations
  • Aussie, NZ Dollars fall as S&P 500 futures hint at risk aversion

UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to rise to 0.7 percent, the highest in almost two years. The Bank of England has unambiguously stated that it expects and intends to look through a sharp rise in price growth after the post-Brexit vote slide in the British Pound.

With that in mind, the pickup due to be reported today ought to mean relatively little for the near-term trajectory of monetary policy. By extension, significant follow-through from Sterling following the release seems unlikely.

Elsewhere on the docket, German ZEW survey of analyst sentiment will cross the wires. Confidence is expected to improve for a second consecutive month having plunged in the wake of the UK EU membership referendum. German economic news-flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts over the past month however, opening the door for a downside surprise that may weigh on the Euro.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in overnight trade, tracking lower alongside S&P 500 futures. Asian bourses played catch-up to yesterday’s rebound on Wall Street in the wake of dovish comments from Fed Governor Brainard. Contracts tracking the US benchmark index appeared to be looking ahead however, with a degree of risk aversion seeming to resurface and pulling the sentiment-linked commodity currencies lower in the process.

Are retail FX traders buying or selling the US Dollar? Find out here !

Asia Session

22:30AUDRBA's Kent Speech at Bloomberg Sydney ---
22:45NZDFood Prices (MoM) (AUG)1.3%--0.2%
23:30AUDWeekly Consumer Confidence Index (SEP 11)118.1-114.3
23:50JPYBSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (3Q)1.9--7.9
23:50JPYBSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (3Q)2.9--11.1
01:30AUDNAB Business Conditions (AUG)7-9
01:30AUDNAB Business Confidence (AUG)6-4
02:00CNYIndustrial Production (YoY) (AUG)6.3%6.2%6.0%
02:00CNYIndustrial Production YTD (YoY) (AUG)6.0%6.0%6.0%
02:00CNYRetail Sales (YoY) (AUG)10.6%10.2%10.2%
02:00CNYRetail Sales YTD (YoY) (AUG)10.3%10.3%10.3%
02:00CNYFixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (AUG)8.1%7.9%8.1%

European Session

06:00EURGerman CPI (MoM) (AUG F)0.0%0.0%Medium
06:00EURGerman CPI (YoY) (AUG F)0.4%0.4%Medium
06:00EURGerman WPI (MoM) (AUG)-0.2%Low
06:00EURGerman WPI (YoY) (AUG)--1.4%Low
07:15CHFProducer & Import Prices (MoM) (AUG)-0.2%-0.1%Medium
07:15CHFProducer & Import Prices (YoY) (AUG)-0.3%-0.8%Medium
08:30GBPCPI (MoM) (AUG)0.4%-0.1%High
08:30GBPCPI (YoY) (AUG)0.7%0.6%High
08:30GBPCPI Core (YoY) (AUG)1.4%1.3%High
08:30GBPRPI (MoM) (AUG)0.4%0.1%Medium
08:30GBPRPI (YoY) (AUG)1.8%1.9%Medium
08:30GBPRPI Ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (AUG)1.9%1.9%Low
08:30GBPPPI Input NSA (MoM) (AUG)0.6%3.3%Low
08:30GBPPPI Input NSA (YoY) (AUG)8.2%4.3%Low
08:30GBPPPI Output NSA (MoM) (AUG)0.3%0.3%Medium
08:30GBPPPI Output NSA (YoY) (AUG)1.0%0.3%Medium
08:30GBPPPI Output Core NSA (MoM) (AUG)0.2%0.4%Low
08:30GBPPPI Output Core NSA (YoY) (AUG)1.3%1.0%Low
08:30GBPHouse Price Index (YoY) (JUL)-8.7%Low
09:00EUREurozone Employment (QoQ) (2Q)-0.3%Low
09:00EUREurozone Employment (YoY) (2Q)-1.4%Low
09:00EURGerman ZEW Survey Current Situation (SEP)56.057.6Medium
09:00EURGerman ZEW Survey Expectations (SEP)2.50.5Medium
09:00EUREurozone ZEW Survey Expectations (SEP)-4.6Medium
09:40GBPBOE ILTR Operation Results --Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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