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Pound May Ignore UK CPI Data as Euro Falls on German ZEW Miss

Pound May Ignore UK CPI Data as Euro Falls on German ZEW Miss

2016-09-13 05:52:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound may ignore UK CPI gain on limited BOE impact
  • Euro may fall if German ZEW survey falls short of expectations
  • Aussie, NZ Dollars fall as S&P 500 futures hint at risk aversion

UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to rise to 0.7 percent, the highest in almost two years. The Bank of England has unambiguously stated that it expects and intends to look through a sharp rise in price growth after the post-Brexit vote slide in the British Pound.

With that in mind, the pickup due to be reported today ought to mean relatively little for the near-term trajectory of monetary policy. By extension, significant follow-through from Sterling following the release seems unlikely.

Elsewhere on the docket, German ZEW survey of analyst sentiment will cross the wires. Confidence is expected to improve for a second consecutive month having plunged in the wake of the UK EU membership referendum. German economic news-flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts over the past month however, opening the door for a downside surprise that may weigh on the Euro.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in overnight trade, tracking lower alongside S&P 500 futures. Asian bourses played catch-up to yesterday’s rebound on Wall Street in the wake of dovish comments from Fed Governor Brainard. Contracts tracking the US benchmark index appeared to be looking ahead however, with a degree of risk aversion seeming to resurface and pulling the sentiment-linked commodity currencies lower in the process.

Are retail FX traders buying or selling the US Dollar? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

RBA's Kent Speech at Bloomberg Sydney

-

-

-

22:45

NZD

Food Prices (MoM) (AUG)

1.3%

-

-0.2%

23:30

AUD

Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (SEP 11)

118.1

-

114.3

23:50

JPY

BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (3Q)

1.9

-

-7.9

23:50

JPY

BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (3Q)

2.9

-

-11.1

01:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (AUG)

7

-

9

01:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (AUG)

6

-

4

02:00

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG)

6.3%

6.2%

6.0%

02:00

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (AUG)

6.0%

6.0%

6.0%

02:00

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (AUG)

10.6%

10.2%

10.2%

02:00

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (AUG)

10.3%

10.3%

10.3%

02:00

CNY

Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (AUG)

8.1%

7.9%

8.1%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (AUG F)

0.0%

0.0%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (AUG F)

0.4%

0.4%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German WPI (MoM) (AUG)

-

0.2%

Low

06:00

EUR

German WPI (YoY) (AUG)

-

-1.4%

Low

07:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (AUG)

-0.2%

-0.1%

Medium

07:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (AUG)

-0.3%

-0.8%

Medium

08:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (AUG)

0.4%

-0.1%

High

08:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (AUG)

0.7%

0.6%

High

08:30

GBP

CPI Core (YoY) (AUG)

1.4%

1.3%

High

08:30

GBP

RPI (MoM) (AUG)

0.4%

0.1%

Medium

08:30

GBP

RPI (YoY) (AUG)

1.8%

1.9%

Medium

08:30

GBP

RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (AUG)

1.9%

1.9%

Low

08:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (MoM) (AUG)

0.6%

3.3%

Low

08:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (YoY) (AUG)

8.2%

4.3%

Low

08:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (MoM) (AUG)

0.3%

0.3%

Medium

08:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (YoY) (AUG)

1.0%

0.3%

Medium

08:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (MoM) (AUG)

0.2%

0.4%

Low

08:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) (AUG)

1.3%

1.0%

Low

08:30

GBP

House Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

-

8.7%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Employment (QoQ) (2Q)

-

0.3%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Employment (YoY) (2Q)

-

1.4%

Low

09:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey Current Situation (SEP)

56.0

57.6

Medium

09:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey Expectations (SEP)

2.5

0.5

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations (SEP)

-

4.6

Medium

09:40

GBP

BOE ILTR Operation Results

-

-

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1124

1.1181

1.1208

1.1238

1.1265

1.1295

1.1352

GBP/USD

1.3085

1.3196

1.3266

1.3307

1.3377

1.3418

1.3529

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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