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British Pound May Rise on UK PMIs, US Dollar on the Defensive

British Pound May Rise on UK PMIs, US Dollar on the Defensive

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar on the defensive as Asia reacts to Augusts’ nonfarm payrolls data
  • Follow-through on USD weakness may be lacking as Fed hike bets resurface
  • British Pound may rise as final round of PMIs cools BOE easing speculation

The US Dollar traded broadly lower against its major counterparts at the start of the trading week, with Asian markets seemingly playing catch-up following Friday’s US jobs report. The data revealed that the economy added 151k jobs in August compared with 180k expected by economists.

The outcome initially sank US yields and the greenback as traders took the miss as a negative for Fed rate hike prospects. Benchmark borrowing costs and greenback would swiftly recover however, perhaps because the payrolls print nudged the three-month trend average above the 190k level cited by Fed Chair Yellen as supportive of tightening. With that in mind, USD weakness may struggle to find lasting follow-through.

Augusts’ UK Services and Composite PMI readings headline the European data docket. Upside surprises on analogous manufacturing- and construction-sector readings proved supportive for the British Pound last week and more of the same could be on tap this time around. Indeed, a Citi gauge measuring the behavior of UK economic news-flow relative to consensus forecasts is now pointing to the strongest outperformance in three years.

Losing money trading in the FX market? This might be why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Services Index (AUG)

45.0

-

53.9

00:00

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL)

1.4%

0.4%

1.4%

00:00

JPY

Real Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL)

2.0%

0.7%

2.0%

00:30

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Services (AUG)

49.6

-

50.4

00:30

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Composite (AUG)

49.8

-

50.1

01:00

AUD

Melbourne Institute Inflation (MoM) (AUG)

0.2%

-

-0.3%

01:00

AUD

Melbourne Institute Inflation (YoY) (AUG)

1.2%

-

1.0%

01:00

NZD

ANZ Commodity Price (AUG)

3.2%

-

2.1%

01:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (AUG)

1.8%

-

-0.8%

01:30

AUD

Inventories SA (QoQ) (2Q)

0.3%

0.3%

-0.4%

01:30

AUD

Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (2Q)

6.9%

2.0%

-4.4%

01:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Services (AUG)

52.1

-

51.7

01:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Composite (AUG)

51.8

-

51.9

02:30

JPY

Kuroda Speaks at a Kyodo News event

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (AUG)

51.8

52.0

Low

07:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI (AUG)

52.0

52.2

Low

07:50

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (AUG F)

52.0

52.0

Low

07:50

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (AUG F)

51.6

51.6

Low

07:55

EUR

Markit Germany Services PMI (AUG F)

53.3

53.3

Medium

07:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (AUG F)

54.4

54.4

Medium

08:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits (SEP 2)

-

515.6b

Low

08:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits (SEP 2)

-

438.1b

Low

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (AUG F)

53.1

53.1

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (AUG F)

53.3

53.3

Medium

08:30

GBP

Official Reserves Changes (AUG)

-

$219m

Low

08:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (AUG)

50.0

47.4

High

08:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (AUG)

50.8

47.5

High

08:30

EUR

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (SEP)

5.0

4.2

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)

0.5%

0.0%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)

1.8%

1.6%

Medium

13:50

GBP

Bank of England Bond-Buying Operation Results

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0984

1.1085

1.1121

1.1186

1.1222

1.1287

1.1388

GBP/USD

1.3102

1.3201

1.3247

1.3300

1.3346

1.3399

1.3498

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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