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Breaking news

NFP prints at 339k vs estimates of 190k, ave earnings in line at 0.3% MoM

British Pound May Rise on UK PMIs, US Dollar on the Defensive

British Pound May Rise on UK PMIs, US Dollar on the Defensive

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar on the defensive as Asia reacts to Augusts’ nonfarm payrolls data
  • Follow-through on USD weakness may be lacking as Fed hike bets resurface
  • British Pound may rise as final round of PMIs cools BOE easing speculation

The US Dollar traded broadly lower against its major counterparts at the start of the trading week, with Asian markets seemingly playing catch-up following Friday’s US jobs report. The data revealed that the economy added 151k jobs in August compared with 180k expected by economists.

The outcome initially sank US yields and the greenback as traders took the miss as a negative for Fed rate hike prospects. Benchmark borrowing costs and greenback would swiftly recover however, perhaps because the payrolls print nudged the three-month trend average above the 190k level cited by Fed Chair Yellen as supportive of tightening. With that in mind, USD weakness may struggle to find lasting follow-through.

Augusts’ UK Services and Composite PMI readings headline the European data docket. Upside surprises on analogous manufacturing- and construction-sector readings proved supportive for the British Pound last week and more of the same could be on tap this time around. Indeed, a Citi gauge measuring the behavior of UK economic news-flow relative to consensus forecasts is now pointing to the strongest outperformance in three years.

Losing money trading in the FX market? This might be why.

Asia Session

23:30AUDAiG Perf of Services Index (AUG)45.0-53.9
00:00JPYLabor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL)1.4%0.4%1.4%
00:00JPYReal Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL)2.0%0.7%2.0%
00:30JPYNikkei Japan PMI Services (AUG)49.6-50.4
00:30JPYNikkei Japan PMI Composite (AUG)49.8-50.1
01:00AUDMelbourne Institute Inflation (MoM) (AUG)0.2%--0.3%
01:00AUDMelbourne Institute Inflation (YoY) (AUG)1.2%-1.0%
01:00NZDANZ Commodity Price (AUG)3.2%-2.1%
01:30AUDANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (AUG)1.8%--0.8%
01:30AUDInventories SA (QoQ) (2Q)0.3%0.3%-0.4%
01:30AUDCompany Operating Profit (QoQ) (2Q)6.9%2.0%-4.4%
01:45CNYCaixin China PMI Services (AUG)52.1-51.7
01:45CNYCaixin China PMI Composite (AUG)51.8-51.9
02:30JPYKuroda Speaks at a Kyodo News event ---

European Session

07:45EURMarkit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (AUG)51.852.0Low
07:45EURMarkit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI (AUG)52.052.2Low
07:50EURMarkit France Services PMI (AUG F) 52.052.0Low
07:50EURMarkit France Composite PMI (AUG F) 51.651.6Low
07:55EURMarkit Germany Services PMI (AUG F) 53.353.3Medium
07:55EURMarkit/BME Germany Composite PMI (AUG F) 54.454.4Medium
08:00CHFTotal Sight Deposits (SEP 2)-515.6bLow
08:00CHFDomestic Sight Deposits (SEP 2)-438.1bLow
08:00EURMarkit Eurozone Services PMI (AUG F) 53.153.1Medium
08:00EURMarkit Eurozone Composite PMI (AUG F) 53.353.3Medium
08:30GBPOfficial Reserves Changes (AUG)-$219mLow
08:30GBPMarkit/CIPS UK Services PMI (AUG)50.047.4High
08:30GBPMarkit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (AUG)50.847.5High
08:30EUREurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (SEP)5.04.2Low
09:00EUREurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)0.5%0.0%Medium
09:00EUREurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)1.8%1.6%Medium
13:50GBPBank of England Bond-Buying Operation Results --Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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