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British Pound May Rise if Upbeat PMI Cools BOE Easing Speculation

British Pound May Rise if Upbeat PMI Cools BOE Easing Speculation

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound may rise if upbeat PMI data cools BOE easing speculation
  • US Dollar looks to ISM report, comments from Fed’s Mester for direction
  • Aussie Dollar gains after Chinese Manufacturing PMI hits 22-month high

UK Manufacturing PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The report is expected to show factory-sector activity contracted for a second consecutive month in August, albeit at a slower pace. UK economic news-flow has increasingly improved relative to consensus forecasts in recent weeks, opening the door for an upside surprise.

Such a result may trim bets on near-term BOE stimulus expansion, boosting the British Pound. As it stands, financial markets are pricing in 40 basis points in further easing over the coming 12 months. Interest-rate futures imply no changes in the baseline lending rate over that period however, hinting that perhaps the markets envision an unconventional approach to accommodation (a further QE expansion, perhaps).

Fed policy speculation returns to the forefront later in the dayas Augusts’ ISM Manufacturing report and scheduled commentary from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester cross the wires. An upbeat ISM result in line with recent improvement data outcomes relative to consensus forecasts coupled with rhetoric toeing the line set by FOMC leadership in recent days May boost the US Dollar. Follow-through may be limited as traders reserve firm judgment until after Friday’s release of official labor-market data.

The Australian Dollar traded higher overnight after the official set of Augusts’ Chinese PMI figures crossed the wires. The reports showed a mild slowing in service-sector activity but the manufacturing sector unexpected roared back to life, with the pace of growth surging to the highest level since October 2014.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner and improving performance there may bolster the latter country’s growth prospects, limiting scope for further RBA interest rate cuts. Indeed, the Aussie rallied alongside front-end bond yields after the PMI roundup crossed the wires. The Japanese Yen likewise traded higher in a move that seemed to be corrective after the currency broadly underperformed against its major counterparts in yesterday’s session.

What do past price patterns hint about where currencies will go next? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (2Q)

-2.1%

-1.5%

4.1%

23:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (AUG)

46.9

-

56.4

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending Ex Software (2Q)

3.1%

5.5%

4.3%

23:50

JPY

Company Profits (2Q)

-10.0%

-

-9.3%

23:50

JPY

Company Sales (2Q)

-3.5%

-

-3.3%

00:00

AUD

CoreLogic House Px (MoM) (AUG)

1.1%

-

0.8%

00:30

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (AUG)

49.5

-

49.6

01:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (AUG)

50.4

49.8

49.9

01:00

CNY

Non-manufacturing PMI (AUG)

53.5

-

53.9

01:30

AUD

Private Capital Expenditure (2Q)

-5.4%

-4.0%

-5.2%

01:30

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)

0.0%

0.30%

0.1%

01:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Mfg (AUG)

50.0

50.1

50.6

05:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (AUG)

-

-0.2%

05:30

NZD

RBNZ Head of Prudential Supervision Speaks

-

-

-

06:30

AUD

Commodity Index AUD (AUG)

-

90.5

06:30

AUD

Commodity Index (YoY) (AUG)

-

-2.0%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:15

CHF

Retail Sales Real (YoY) (JUL)

-

-3.9%

Low

07:30

CHF

PMI Mfg (AUG)

50.6

50.1

Low

07:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (AUG)

51.2

51.2

Low

07:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (AUG F)

48.5

48.5

Low

07:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (AUG F)

53.6

53.6

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (AUG F)

51.8

51.8

Medium

08:30

GBP

Markit UK PMI Mfg SA (AUG)

49.0

48.2

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1065

1.1107

1.1132

1.1149

1.1174

1.1191

1.1233

GBP/USD

1.2939

1.3030

1.3084

1.3121

1.3175

1.3212

1.3303

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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