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US Dollar Looks to Fed Comments, ADP Data to Inform Policy Bets

US Dollar Looks to Fed Comments, ADP Data to Inform Policy Bets

2016-08-31 06:46:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar looks to Fed-speak, ADP data to inform policy outlook
  • Euro will probably overlook Augusts’ flash Eurozone CPI report
  • Yen fell as Japanese stocks rose in Asia, NZ Dollar outperformed

Fed-speak continues to be in focus as the spotlight turns to commentary from Eric Rosengren, Charles Evans and Neel Kashkari, Presidents of the US central bank’s Boston, Chicago and Minneapolis branches, respectively. If their remarks fall in line with the hawkish tone on display from Chair Yellen and Vice Chair Fischer in recent days, another up-shift in the projected Fed rate hike path may offer fresh fodder continued US Dollar gains.

Augusts’ ADP Employment report is also on tap, with expectations pointing to a 175k gain in payrolls compared with 179k added in the prior month. The ADP outcome is a notoriously inconsistent indication of what may happen when official US labor-market data cross the wires but the markets may prove responsive anyway if the outcome deviates from expectations to large extent. An upside surprise will probably bode well for the greenback, and vice versa.

Flash Eurozone CPI data headlines the European data docket. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to tick higher to 0.3 percent, up from 0.2 percent recorded in the prior month. The release seems unlikely to generate attention from the Euro unless a particularly dismal downside surprise stokes speculation about imminent ECB stimulus expansion.

The Yen underperformed in overnight trade as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index advanced, sapping demand for the anti-risk currency. The New Zealand Dollar proved strongest on the session, trading higher alongside the island nation’s government bonds. This hints the move reflected an increase in demand for NZD-denominated assets, which may speak to reach for yield and thereby imply a near-term improvement in risk appetite.

Losing money trading in the FX market? This might be why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence (AUG)

-7

-8

-12

23:01

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (AUG)

16

-

29

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUL)

2.25%

-

2.04%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL P)

0.0%

0.8%

2.3%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL P)

-3.8%

-3.0%

-1.5%

01:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (AUG)

33.7

-

31.4

01:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (AUG)

15.5

-

16

01:00

AUD

RBA's Debelle Gives Speech

-

-

-

01:30

JPY

BOJ Board Member Funo Speech

-

-

-

01:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUL)

0.4%

0.4%

0.2%

01:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUL)

6.0%

6.1%

6.2%

01:45

CNY

Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (AUG)

111.5

-

114

03:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUL)

6.3%

-

5.9%

04:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUL)

-4.1%

-

-1.0%

05:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (JUL)

8.9%

7.3%

-2.5%

05:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (JUL)

1.005m

0.992m

1.004m

05:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (JUL)

-10.9%

-

-2.4%

05:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (AUG)

46.3

-

47.8

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)

0.5%

-0.1%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)

0.3%

2.7%

Medium

06:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (JUL)

-

1.34

Low

06:00

EUR

ECB's Villeroy speaks at Frankfurt event

-

-

Low

06:00

GBP

Nationwide House Px (MoM) (AUG)

-0.2%

0.5%

Medium

06:00

GBP

Nationwide House Px NSA (YoY) (AUG)

4.8%

5.2%

Medium

07:15

USD

Fed's Rosengren Speaks on Panel in Beijing

-

-

Medium

07:15

USD

Fed's Evans Speaks on Panel in Beijing

-

-

Medium

07:15

EUR

ECB's Praet speaks on Panel in Beijing

-

-

Low

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (000's) (AUG)

-4k

-7k

Medium

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Claims Rate SA (AUG)

6.1%

6.1%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (JUL)

10.0%

10.1%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (AUG)

0.3%

0.2%

High

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (AUG A)

0.9%

0.9%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1036

1.1096

1.1119

1.1156

1.1179

1.1216

1.1276

GBP/USD

1.2967

1.3027

1.3053

1.3087

1.3113

1.3147

1.3207

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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