US Dollar Looks to Fed Comments, ADP Data to Inform Policy Bets
- US Dollar looks to Fed-speak, ADP data to inform policy outlook
- Euro will probably overlook Augusts’ flash Eurozone CPI report
- Yen fell as Japanese stocks rose in Asia, NZ Dollar outperformed
Fed-speak continues to be in focus as the spotlight turns to commentary from Eric Rosengren, Charles Evans and Neel Kashkari, Presidents of the US central bank’s Boston, Chicago and Minneapolis branches, respectively. If their remarks fall in line with the hawkish tone on display from Chair Yellen and Vice Chair Fischer in recent days, another up-shift in the projected Fed rate hike path may offer fresh fodder continued US Dollar gains.
Augusts’ ADP Employment report is also on tap, with expectations pointing to a 175k gain in payrolls compared with 179k added in the prior month. The ADP outcome is a notoriously inconsistent indication of what may happen when official US labor-market data cross the wires but the markets may prove responsive anyway if the outcome deviates from expectations to large extent. An upside surprise will probably bode well for the greenback, and vice versa.
Flash Eurozone CPI data headlines the European data docket. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to tick higher to 0.3 percent, up from 0.2 percent recorded in the prior month. The release seems unlikely to generate attention from the Euro unless a particularly dismal downside surprise stokes speculation about imminent ECB stimulus expansion.
The Yen underperformed in overnight trade as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index advanced, sapping demand for the anti-risk currency. The New Zealand Dollar proved strongest on the session, trading higher alongside the island nation’s government bonds. This hints the move reflected an increase in demand for NZD-denominated assets, which may speak to reach for yield and thereby imply a near-term improvement in risk appetite.
Losing money trading in the FX market? This might be why.
|23:01||GBP||GfK Consumer Confidence (AUG)||-7||-8||-12|
|23:01||GBP||Lloyds Business Barometer (AUG)||16||-||29|
|23:50||JPY||Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUL)||2.25%||-||2.04%|
|23:50||JPY||Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL P)||0.0%||0.8%||2.3%|
|23:50||JPY||Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL P)||-3.8%||-3.0%||-1.5%|
|01:00||NZD||ANZ Activity Outlook (AUG)||33.7||-||31.4|
|01:00||NZD||ANZ Business Confidence (AUG)||15.5||-||16|
|01:00||AUD||RBA's Debelle Gives Speech||-||-||-|
|01:30||JPY||BOJ Board Member Funo Speech||-||-||-|
|01:30||AUD||Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUL)||0.4%||0.4%||0.2%|
|01:30||AUD||Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUL)||6.0%||6.1%||6.2%|
|01:45||CNY||Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (AUG)||111.5||-||114|
|03:00||NZD||Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUL)||6.3%||-||5.9%|
|04:00||JPY||Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUL)||-4.1%||-||-1.0%|
|05:00||JPY||Housing Starts (YoY) (JUL)||8.9%||7.3%||-2.5%|
|05:00||JPY||Annualized Housing Starts (JUL)||1.005m||0.992m||1.004m|
|05:00||JPY||Construction Orders (YoY) (JUL)||-10.9%||-||-2.4%|
|05:00||JPY||Small Business Confidence (AUG)||46.3||-||47.8|
|06:00||EUR||German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)||0.5%||-0.1%||Medium|
|06:00||EUR||German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)||0.3%||2.7%||Medium|
|06:00||CHF||UBS Consumption Indicator (JUL)||-||1.34||Low|
|06:00||EUR||ECB's Villeroy speaks at Frankfurt event||-||-||Low|
|06:00||GBP||Nationwide House Px (MoM) (AUG)||-0.2%||0.5%||Medium|
|06:00||GBP||Nationwide House Px NSA (YoY) (AUG)||4.8%||5.2%||Medium|
|07:15||USD||Fed's Rosengren Speaks on Panel in Beijing||-||-||Medium|
|07:15||USD||Fed's Evans Speaks on Panel in Beijing||-||-||Medium|
|07:15||EUR||ECB's Praet speaks on Panel in Beijing||-||-||Low|
|07:55||EUR||German Unemployment Change (000's) (AUG)||-4k||-7k||Medium|
|07:55||EUR||German Unemployment Claims Rate SA (AUG)||6.1%||6.1%||Medium|
|09:00||EUR||Eurozone Unemployment Rate (JUL)||10.0%||10.1%||Medium|
|09:00||EUR||Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (AUG)||0.3%||0.2%||High|
|09:00||EUR||Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (AUG A)||0.9%||0.9%||High|
|CCY||Supp 3||Supp 2||Supp 1||Pivot Point||Res 1||Res 2||Res 3|
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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