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US Dollar May Rise Amid Pre-Positioning for Yellen Speech

US Dollar May Rise Amid Pre-Positioning for Yellen Speech

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar seesaws upward amid pre-positioning for Yellen speech
  • NZ Dollar down as disappointing trade data weighs on RBNZ bets
  • Euro may not find lasting momentum in 2Q German GDP revision

The US Dollar corrected higher in overnight trade having traded broadly lower in the prior session. Seesaw price action since the beginning of the week seems to reflect pre-positioning ahead of a much-anticipated speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

A shift in priced-in policy bets implied in Fed Funds futures hints investors are leaning toward a hawkish outcome, hinting the greenback may find fuel for greater gains as the end of the week draws closer. The probability of a rate hike in December now stands at 53.9 percent compared 51 percent last week and 45.1 percent a month ago.

The New Zealand Dollar narrowly underperformed. The currency edged lower alongside front-end bond yields, hinting at a modest up-shift in RBNZ rate cut bets as the catalyst behind the decline. The move appeared to follow a disappointing Trade Balance report. The 12-month year-to-date deficit registered at –NZ$3.03 million versus –NZ$2.9 million expected.

Looking ahead, a revised set of second-quarter German GDP figures headlines an otherwise quiet European data docket. The release is expected to confirm the Eurozone’s largest economy added 0.4 percent in the three months through June. The figures will not capture the cooling effect of the “Brexit” referendum outcome and so seem unlikely to generate a lasting reaction from the Euro.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance (JUL)

-433m

-325m

110m

22:45

NZD

Exports (JUL)

3.96b

4.07b

4.25b

22:45

NZD

Imports (JUL)

4.40b

4.45b

4.14b

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD (JUL)

-3034m

-2900m

-3331m

01:00

AUD

Skilled Vacancies MoM (JUL)

-0.6%

-

0.8%

01:30

AUD

Construction Work Done (2Q)

-3.7%

-2.0%

-2.6%

05:00

JPY

Leading Index CI (JUN F)

-

-

98.4

05:00

JPY

Coincident Index (JUN F)

-

-

110.5

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German Private Consumption (QoQ) (2Q)

0.2%

0.4%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Government Spending (QoQ) (2Q)

0.5%

0.5%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Capital Investment (QoQ) (2Q)

-1.3%

1.8%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Construction Investment (QoQ) (2Q)

-2.8%

2.3%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Domestic Demand (QoQ) (2Q)

-0.1%

0.8%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Exports (QoQ) (2Q)

0.7%

1.0%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Imports (QoQ) (2Q)

-0.3%

1.4%

Low

06:00

EUR

German GDP s.a. (QoQ) (2Q F)

0.4%

0.4%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German GDP w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q F)

1.8%

1.8%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German GDP n.s.a. (YoY) (2Q F)

3.1%

3.1%

Medium

08:30

GBP

BBA Loans for House Purchase (JUL)

38000

40103

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1217

1.1269

1.1287

1.1321

1.1339

1.1373

1.1425

GBP/USD

1.3015

1.3097

1.3148

1.3179

1.3230

1.3261

1.3343

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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