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Euro Likely to be More Sensitive to Soft vs. Upbeat PMI Data

Euro Likely to be More Sensitive to Soft vs. Upbeat PMI Data

2016-08-23 05:27:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro likely to be more sensitive to soft vs. upbeat Eurozone PMI reports
  • New Zealand Dollar gains as RBNZ’s Wheeler talks down rate cut bets
  • Aussie rises as Yellen pre-positioning slows, Canadian Dollar rebounds

The preliminary set of August Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar. The region-wide composite gauge is expected to show that manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth slowed a bit compared with the prior month. Traders will look to the data to gauge the extent to which uncertainty triggered by the outcome of the “Brexit” referendum is hurting performance.

On balance, results in line or even better than economists’ expectations are unlikely to alter the trajectory of ECB monetary policy, undermining their ability to drive lasting Euro momentum. On the other hand, a downside surprise may speak to the central bank’s pledge to boost stimulus if necessary and apply pressure to the single currency.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in Asian trade, rising after comments from RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler poured cold water on interest rate cut speculation. The Australian Dollar likewise advanced as a surge in Fed rate hike speculation struggled for follow-through (as was suspected), offering a lift to the yields-sensitive currency. Indeed, the US Dollar traded broadly lower against its major counterparts.

The Canadian Dollar corrected higher having plunged alongside crude oil yesterday. The benchmark WTI contract posted the largest daily drop in two weeks after Iraq, OPEC’s second largest producer, signaled an on-coming output boost. Energy exports are over 22 percent of Canada’s total cross-border sales, making oil prices an important input for overall growth and monetary policy trends.

Losing money trading in the FX markets? This may be why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speaks in Dunedin

-

-

-

23:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

121.8

-

117.6

01:45

CNY

MNI August Business Indicator

54.3

-

55.5

02:00

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (AUG P)

49.6

-

49.3

04:00

JPY

Kuroda Speaks at BOJ's Fintech Conference

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

CHF

Trade Balance (JUL)

-

3.55b

Low

06:00

CHF

Exports Real (MoM) (JUL)

-

-3.3%

Low

06:00

CHF

Imports Real (MoM) (JUL)

-

-4.0%

Low

07:00

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (AUG P)

48.8

48.6

Medium

07:00

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (AUG P)

50.5

50.5

Medium

07:00

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (AUG P)

50.4

50.1

Medium

07:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (AUG P)

53.6

53.8

High

07:30

EUR

Markit Germany Services PMI (AUG P)

54.4

54.4

High

07:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (AUG P)

55.1

55.3

High

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (AUG P)

52.0

52.0

High

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (AUG P)

52.8

52.9

High

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (AUG P)

53.1

53.2

High

09:40

GBP

BOE ILTR Operation Results

-

-

Medium

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (AUG)

-10

-4

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (AUG)

-

5

Low

10:30

EUR

ECB's Coeure, Lane, Smets on Panel in Geneva

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1182

1.1245

1.1283

1.1308

1.1346

1.1371

1.1434

GBP/USD

1.2866

1.2988

1.3062

1.3110

1.3184

1.3232

1.3354

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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