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Euro Likely to be More Sensitive to Soft vs. Upbeat PMI Data

Euro Likely to be More Sensitive to Soft vs. Upbeat PMI Data

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

The preliminary set of August Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar. The region-wide composite gauge is expected to show that manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth slowed a bit compared with the prior month. Traders will look to the data to gauge the extent to which uncertainty triggered by the outcome of the “Brexit” referendum is hurting performance.

On balance, results in line or even better than economists’ expectations are unlikely to alter the trajectory of ECB monetary policy, undermining their ability to drive lasting Euro momentum. On the other hand, a downside surprise may speak to the central bank’s pledge to boost stimulus if necessary and apply pressure to the single currency.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in Asian trade, rising after comments from RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler poured cold water on interest rate cut speculation. The Australian Dollar likewise advanced as a surge in Fed rate hike speculation struggled for follow-through (as was suspected), offering a lift to the yields-sensitive currency. Indeed, the US Dollar traded broadly lower against its major counterparts.

The Canadian Dollar corrected higher having plunged alongside crude oil yesterday. The benchmark WTI contract posted the largest daily drop in two weeks after Iraq, OPEC’s second largest producer, signaled an on-coming output boost. Energy exports are over 22 percent of Canada’s total cross-border sales, making oil prices an important input for overall growth and monetary policy trends.

Losing money trading in the FX markets? This may be why.

Asia Session

21:00NZDRBNZ Governor Wheeler Speaks in Dunedin ---
23:30AUDANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence121.8-117.6
01:45CNYMNI August Business Indicator 54.3-55.5
02:00JPYNikkei Japan PMI Mfg (AUG P)49.6-49.3
04:00JPYKuroda Speaks at BOJ's Fintech Conference ---

European Session

06:00CHFTrade Balance (JUL)-3.55bLow
06:00CHFExports Real (MoM) (JUL)--3.3%Low
06:00CHFImports Real (MoM) (JUL)--4.0%Low
07:00EURMarkit France Mfg PMI (AUG P)48.848.6Medium
07:00EURMarkit France Services PMI (AUG P)50.550.5Medium
07:00EURMarkit France Composite PMI (AUG P)50.450.1Medium
07:30EURMarkit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (AUG P)53.653.8High
07:30EURMarkit Germany Services PMI (AUG P)54.454.4High
07:30EURMarkit/BME Germany Composite PMI (AUG P)55.155.3High
08:00EURMarkit Eurozone Mfg PMI (AUG P)52.052.0High
08:00EURMarkit Eurozone Services PMI (AUG P)52.852.9High
08:00EURMarkit Eurozone Composite PMI (AUG P)53.153.2High
09:40GBPBOE ILTR Operation Results --Medium
10:00GBPCBI Trends Total Orders (AUG)-10-4Low
10:00GBPCBI Trends Selling Prices (AUG)-5Low
10:30EURECB's Coeure, Lane, Smets on Panel in Geneva --Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.