Euro Likely to be More Sensitive to Soft vs. Upbeat PMI Data
- Euro likely to be more sensitive to soft vs. upbeat Eurozone PMI reports
- New Zealand Dollar gains as RBNZ’s Wheeler talks down rate cut bets
- Aussie rises as Yellen pre-positioning slows, Canadian Dollar rebounds
The preliminary set of August Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar. The region-wide composite gauge is expected to show that manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth slowed a bit compared with the prior month. Traders will look to the data to gauge the extent to which uncertainty triggered by the outcome of the “Brexit” referendum is hurting performance.
On balance, results in line or even better than economists’ expectations are unlikely to alter the trajectory of ECB monetary policy, undermining their ability to drive lasting Euro momentum. On the other hand, a downside surprise may speak to the central bank’s pledge to boost stimulus if necessary and apply pressure to the single currency.
The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in Asian trade, rising after comments from RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler poured cold water on interest rate cut speculation. The Australian Dollar likewise advanced as a surge in Fed rate hike speculation struggled for follow-through (as was suspected), offering a lift to the yields-sensitive currency. Indeed, the US Dollar traded broadly lower against its major counterparts.
The Canadian Dollar corrected higher having plunged alongside crude oil yesterday. The benchmark WTI contract posted the largest daily drop in two weeks after Iraq, OPEC’s second largest producer, signaled an on-coming output boost. Energy exports are over 22 percent of Canada’s total cross-border sales, making oil prices an important input for overall growth and monetary policy trends.
Losing money trading in the FX markets? This may be why.
|21:00||NZD||RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speaks in Dunedin||-||-||-|
|23:30||AUD||ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence||121.8||-||117.6|
|01:45||CNY||MNI August Business Indicator||54.3||-||55.5|
|02:00||JPY||Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (AUG P)||49.6||-||49.3|
|04:00||JPY||Kuroda Speaks at BOJ's Fintech Conference||-||-||-|
|06:00||CHF||Trade Balance (JUL)||-||3.55b||Low|
|06:00||CHF||Exports Real (MoM) (JUL)||-||-3.3%||Low|
|06:00||CHF||Imports Real (MoM) (JUL)||-||-4.0%||Low|
|07:00||EUR||Markit France Mfg PMI (AUG P)||48.8||48.6||Medium|
|07:00||EUR||Markit France Services PMI (AUG P)||50.5||50.5||Medium|
|07:00||EUR||Markit France Composite PMI (AUG P)||50.4||50.1||Medium|
|07:30||EUR||Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (AUG P)||53.6||53.8||High|
|07:30||EUR||Markit Germany Services PMI (AUG P)||54.4||54.4||High|
|07:30||EUR||Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (AUG P)||55.1||55.3||High|
|08:00||EUR||Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (AUG P)||52.0||52.0||High|
|08:00||EUR||Markit Eurozone Services PMI (AUG P)||52.8||52.9||High|
|08:00||EUR||Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (AUG P)||53.1||53.2||High|
|09:40||GBP||BOE ILTR Operation Results||-||-||Medium|
|10:00||GBP||CBI Trends Total Orders (AUG)||-10||-4||Low|
|10:00||GBP||CBI Trends Selling Prices (AUG)||-||5||Low|
|10:30||EUR||ECB's Coeure, Lane, Smets on Panel in Geneva||-||-||Medium|
|CCY||Supp 3||Supp 2||Supp 1||Pivot Point||Res 1||Res 2||Res 3|
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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