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US Dollar on the Upswing as Markets Eye Fed Meeting Minutes

US Dollar on the Upswing as Markets Eye Fed Meeting Minutes

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar gains on pre-position for hawkish FOMC meeting minutes
  • Yen drops as Asian stocks rise, Aussie and NZ Dollars under pressure
  • British Pound may not see lasting response to UK jobless claims data

The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade as the markets’ attention turned to the upcoming release of minutes from July’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The currency rose alongside benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yields, suggesting investors may have been positioning for a hawkish posture.

Yesterday’s comments from Bill Dudley may have set the tone for pre-positioning. The New York Fed President said that the market is “complacent” about the need to hike rates and “under-pricing” the scope of on-coming tightening.

The central bank asserted that “near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished” following the sit-down. Traders will be keen to see more about what lurks behind this assessment to gauge whether priced-in rate hike probabilities are indeed too low, as Mr Dudley argued.

The Japanese Yen slumped as Asian stocks pushed upward, sapping demand for the anti-risk currency. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars turned lower. A discrete catalyst was not readily apparent but the prospect of a more hawkish Fed may have applied outsized pressure on yield-sensitive high beta FX.

UK jobless claims headline the economic data docket in European hours, with a 9k increase expected. On balance, the release may have little lasting impact on the British Pound considering its limited implications for near-term BOE policy, with officials likely in wait-and-see mode having just expanded stimulus.

Has the US Dollar matched DailyFX analysts’ forecasts for 2Q? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

PPI Input (QoQ) (2Q)

0.9%

-

-1.0%

22:45

NZD

PPI Output (QoQ) (2Q)

0.2%

-

-0.2%

22:45

NZD

Unemployment Rate (2Q)

5.1%

5.3%

5.2%

22:45

NZD

Employment Change (QoQ) (2Q)

2.4%

0.6%

1.3%

22:45

NZD

Employment Change YoY (2Q)

4.5%

2.3%

2.0%

22:45

NZD

Participation Rate (2Q)

69.7%

68.8%

69.0%

00:30

AUD

Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (JUL)

0.05%

-

-0.22%

01:30

AUD

Wage Price Index (QoQ) (2Q)

0.5%

0.5%

0.5%

01:30

AUD

Wage Price Index (YoY) (2Q)

2.1

2.0%

2.1%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

08:30

GBP

Claimant Count Rate (JUL)

2.2%

2.2%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Jobless Claims Change (JUL)

9.0k

0.4k

Medium

08:30

GBP

Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (JUN)

2.4%

2.3%

Low

08:30

GBP

Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (JUN)

2.3%

2.2%

Low

08:30

GBP

ILO Unemployment Rate (3Mths) (JUN)

4.9%

4.9%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Employment Change (3M/3M) (JUN)

150k

176k

Low

09:00

CHF

Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) (AUG)

-

5.9

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0970

1.1115

1.1197

1.1260

1.1342

1.1405

1.1550

GBP/USD

1.2646

1.2819

1.2932

1.2992

1.3105

1.3165

1.3338

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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