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New Zealand Dollar Slumps on Swelling RBNZ Rate Cut Bets

New Zealand Dollar Slumps on Swelling RBNZ Rate Cut Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade. The currency fell alongside front-end borrowing costs, hinting that firming RBNZ rate cut expectations may have been behind the move. A sharp drop in the Bank of New Zealand’s Performance of Services index may have helped spark the selloff. The report showed the pace of activity growth in the non-manufacturing sector plunged to the weakest since November 2014. The British Pound mounted what appeared to be a corrective recovery having lost ground against all of its major counterparts last week.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar is likely to make for a quiet, consolidative start to the trading week. S&P 500 futures are pointing cautiously higher, hinting at a risk-on mood that may translate into near-term weakness for the anti-risk US Dollar and Japanese Yen. Lasting follow-through seems unlikely however. A wealth of high-profile event risk is due to cross the wires in the days ahead and traders are unlikely to commit to a firm directional bias in the interim.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

NZD

Performance Services Index (JUL)

54.2

-

56.4

23:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (AUG)

-1.2%

-

-0.9%

23:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (AUG)

4.1%

-

4.5%

23:50

JPY

GDP SA (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.0%

0.2%

0.5%

23:50

JPY

GDP Annualized SA (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.2%

0.7%

2.0%

23:50

JPY

GDP Nominal SA (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.2%

0.2%

0.8%

23:50

JPY

GDP Deflator (YoY) (2Q P)

0.8%

0.7%

0.9%

23:50

JPY

GDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.2%

0.2%

0.7%

23:50

JPY

GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (2Q P)

-0.4%

0.2%

-0.7%

04:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN F)

2.3%

-

1.9%

04:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN F)

1.5%

-

-1.9%

04:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JUN)

-1.5%

-

-2.4%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUL)

-0.2%

0.1%

Low

07:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUL)

-0.9%

-1.0%

Low

08:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits (AUG 12)

-

511.4b

Low

08:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits (AUG 12)

-

437.3b

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0991

1.1081

1.1122

1.1171

1.1212

1.1261

1.1351

GBPUSD

1.2691

1.2822

1.2871

1.2953

1.3002

1.3084

1.3215

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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