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US Dollar Under Fire, NZ Dollar Extends Gains into RBNZ Meeting

US Dollar Under Fire, NZ Dollar Extends Gains into RBNZ Meeting

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

The US Dollar faced selling pressure in overnight trade as US bonds advanced, pushing rates lower and undermining yield support for the benchmark currency. Fixed income demand appeared to stem from haven demand, with rising bond prices mirroring a drop in S&P 500 futures. Tellingly, the anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed among the G10 FX majors.

The British Pound corrected higher having slumped following dovish comments from the BOE’s Ian McCafferty yesterday. The New Zealand Dollar continued to rise in what looks to be an extended pre-positioning for the upcoming RBNZ monetary policy announcement. A 25bps rate cut is broadly expected, meaning surprise risk is skewed to the upside for the currency if forward guidance is less dovish than what is already priced in. With that in mind, gains may reflect protective short-covering.

A scheduled speech from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens – his final outing at the helm of the central bank before stepping down next month – did not generate a dramatic response from the Australian Dollar. Stevens reiterated familiar sentiments, cautioning about over-reliance on monetary policy to deliver growth and urging fiscal authorities to do their part. He also voiced support for inflation-targeting as a policy regime versus more rigid alternatives like that gold standard or an exchange-rate peg.

Looking ahead, another quiet day on the European and US economic data fronts is likely offers few stumbling blocks for established momentum. As noted yesterday however, the lull in high-profile news flow may make markets more sensitive than usual to unexpected headline risk. Otherwise, the aforementioned RBNZ rate decision marks the next key inflection point.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (JUL)

-10.1%

-

6.0%

23:50

JPY

Housing Loans (YoY) (2Q)

2.4%

-

1.9%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (JUN)

8.3%

3.2%

-1.4%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY) (JUN)

-0.9%

-4.5%

-11.7%

23:50

JPY

PPI (MoM) (JUL)

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

23:50

JPY

PPI (YoY) (JUL)

-3.9%

-4.0%

-4.2%

00:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf Index (AUG)

-

-

99.1

00:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf SA (MoM) (AUG)

2.0%

-

-3.0%

01:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) (JUN)

1.2%

2.3%

-0.8%

01:30

AUD

Investment Lending (JUN)

3.2%

-

5.3%

01:30

AUD

Owner-Occupier Loan Value (MoM) (JUN)

1.8%

-

-0.1%

02:00

JPY

Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (JUL)

3.94

-

4.07

03:05

AUD

RBA Governor Stevens Speech in Sydney

-

-

-

04:30

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JUN)

0.3%

0.8%

-1.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

CHF

UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (2Q)

1.32 (A)

1.38

1.35

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1000

1.1052

1.1084

1.1104

1.1136

1.1156

1.1208

GBP/USD

1.2817

1.2910

1.2956

1.3003

1.3049

1.3096

1.3189

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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