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New Zealand Dollar Finds Support as RBNZ Rate Decision Nears

New Zealand Dollar Finds Support as RBNZ Rate Decision Nears

2016-08-09 03:13:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • NZ Dollar finds support in pre-positioning for RBNZ policy announcement
  • British Pound falls as BOE’s McCafferty says further easing likely needed
  • Aussie Dollar down as NAB forecasts RBA to mull non-standard stimulus

The New Zealand Dollar edged higher overnight in what may reflect pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming RBNZ rate decision. Priced-in expectations show investors are certain that a 25bps cut is in the cards, with at least 25bps in further easing over the coming 12 months.

This means a dovish posture is probably well-reflected in the exchange rate already, hinting that NZD volatility risk is skewed to the upside in the event that the central bank seems less inclined to ease in the coming months than the markets are projecting. With that in mind, today’s gains may mark protective rebalancing of exposure after Kiwi hit a two-week low yesterday.

Meanwhile, the British Pound fell after the BOE’s Ian McCafferty said that “more easing is likely to be required” following last week’s rate cut and QE top-up if the economy continues to develop in line with initial survey signals. He cautioned that the rate-setting MPC committee “faces a set of economic circumstances that make assessing the appropriate amount of policy stimulus more difficult” however.

The Australian Dollar was also pressured after NAB said its measure of business confidence fell further in July and projected that the RBA will lower the baseline lending rate by a further 50 basis points to a record-low 1 percent next year. The bank also warned that policymakers may then consider resorting to non-conventional stimulus measures if the economic outlook continues to deteriorate.

Looking ahead, a relatively muted economic data docket in European and US trading hours may allow established momentum to carry forward relatively unmolested. The lull in high-profile news-flow could make for especially pronounced sensitivity to headline risk however, warning that the threat of knee-jerk volatility may be elevated in the near term.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (JUL)

-5.7%

-

4.1%

22:45

NZD

Card Spending Retail (MoM) (JUL)

0.3%

0.1%

1.2%

22:45

NZD

Card Spending Total (MoM) (JUL)

0.4%

-

1.0%

23:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (JUL)

1.1%

-0.7%

-0.5%

23:30

AUD

Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (AUG 7)

114.7

-

118.0

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M2 (YoY) (JUL)

3.3%

3.3%

3.4%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JUL)

2.9%

2.9%

2.9%

01:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (JUL)

8

-

11

01:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (JUL)

4

-

5

01:30

CNY

CPI (YoY) (JUL)

1.8%

1.8%

1.9%

01:30

CNY

PPI (YoY) (JUL)

-1.7%

-2.0%

-2.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

05:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (JUL)

3.1%

3.1%

Medium

05:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate SA (JUL)

3.3%

3.3%

Medium

06:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUL P)

-

-19.9%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (JUN)

23.0b

21.0b

Medium

06:00

EUR

German Current Account Balance (JUN)

23.0b

17.5b

Low

06:00

EUR

German Exports SA (MoM) (JUN)

1.1%

-1.9%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Imports SA (MoM) (JUN)

0.6%

0.1%

Low

08:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN)

0.1%

-0.5%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)

1.6%

1.4%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUN)

-0.2%

-0.5%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUN)

1.3%

1.7%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£/Mn) (JUN)

-10075

-9879

Medium

08:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£/Mn) (JUN)

-2563

-2566

Low

08:30

GBP

Trade Balance (£/Mn) (JUN)

-2550

-2263

Low

09:40

GBP

BOE ILTR Operation Results

-

-

Low

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate (JUL)

0.4%

0.6%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1022

1.1055

1.1072

1.1088

1.1105

1.1121

1.1154

GBP/USD

1.2917

1.2986

1.3014

1.3055

1.3083

1.3124

1.3193

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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