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Yen Drops as Turkey Coup Fizzles, NZ Dollar Falls on RBNZ Bets

Yen Drops as Turkey Coup Fizzles, NZ Dollar Falls on RBNZ Bets

2016-07-18 03:58:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Aussie and Canadian Dollars rise, Yen falls as risk appetite firms overnight
  • NZ Dollar drops as soft 2Q CPI data adds fuel to RBNZ rate cut speculation
  • Sentiment may continue to swell if BOE’s Weale hints at easing in August

The sentiment-linked Australian and Canadian Dollars are trading higher alongside share prices while the anti-risk Japanese Yen is facing selling pressure at the start of the trading week. Financial markets appear to be breathing a sigh of relief after an attempted military coup in Turkey over the weekend seems to have failed.

The New Zealand Dollar is diverging from its commodity bloc counterparts, with prices sinking after a disappointing second-quarter CPI data. The report put the benchmark year-on-year inflation rate at 0.4 percent, lower than the 0.5 percent projected by economists. The currency fell alongside front-end bond yields, hinting markets saw the data as boosting the chance of RBNZ easing. As it stands, traders price in the chance of an August reduction in the cash rate at 70 percent.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic data docket in European and US trading hours is likely to keep sentiment trends at the forefront. Speculation about the aftermath of the UK Brexit referendum may reemerge as the central theme on this front as Bank of England MPC committee member Martin Weale speaks about implications of the vote’s outcome on central bank policy.

Rhetoric supporting the likelihood of stimulus expansion in August in line with hints offered in last week’s policy announcement is likely to prove supportive for risk appetite. This seems likely to keep the commodity Dollars well-supported while pressuring the Yen.

Another helping of second-quarter corporate earnings reports is also worth noting. From a macro sentiment trends perspective, numbers from Bank of America and the cycle-sensitive JB Hunt Transport Services ought to prove most interesting this time around.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

NZD

Performance Services Index (JUN)

56.7

-

56.9

22:45

NZD

CPI (QoQ) (2Q)

0.4%

0.5%

0.2%

22:45

NZD

CPI (YoY) (2Q)

0.4%

0.5%

0.4%

23:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (JUL)

-0.9%

-

0.8%

23:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (JUL)

4.5%

-

5.5%

01:30

CNY

China June Property Prices

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

08:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits (JUL 15)

-

510.5b

Low

08:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits (JUL 15)

-

434.1b

Low

08:15

GBP

BOE's Weale Speaks on Brexit MonPol Impact

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0822

1.0946

1.0990

1.1070

1.1114

1.1194

1.1318

GBPUSD

1.2570

1.2919

1.3056

1.3268

1.3405

1.3617

1.3966

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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