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Japanese Yen Losses May Deepen as US Data Feeds Risk Appetite

Japanese Yen Losses May Deepen as US Data Feeds Risk Appetite

2016-07-15 07:59:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound gains with stocks as BOE signals stimulus boost in August
  • Upbeat Chinese data helps lift sentiment, Aussie Dollar gains as Yen falls
  • US retail sales, consumer confidence numbers may bolster risk appetite

The British Pound outperformed overnight as Asian markets took their turn to react to yesterday’s Bank of England rate decision. Governor Mark Carney and company opted against an interest rate cut projected in consensus forecasts but hinted that easing would arrive in August instead.

It seems to have been this quasi-promise of stimulus on the horizon rather than the absence of a cut that buoyed Sterling. Indeed, the currency rose with yields only briefly after the BOE made its announcement, with the move losing steam and reversing after just an hour.

Fast-forwarding to Friday’s Asian session, the UK unit is rising alongside regional share prices and the sentiment-geared Australian Dollar while the anti-risk Japanese Yen declines. As noted yesterday, easing can be seen as supportive GBP-denominated assets if it aids UK financial stability in a post-Brexit world.

Needless to say, anything that appears to dampen UK instability fears is also helpful to overall risk sentiment in the current environment. Upbeat economic data out of China seems to have helped as well this time around. Retail sales, industrial production and second-quarter GDP figures all topped forecasts.

Carry-over momentum from yesterday’s price action appeared to be in play for the New Zealand Dollar. Prices continued to fall alongside front-end bond yields after the RBNZ appeared to set the stage for a rate cut next month.

June’s US Retail Sales and July’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence data are in focus ahead. Receipts growth is seen slowing (0.1% vs. 0.5% prior) while sentiment holds unchanged. US news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to forecasts since mid-May, opening the door for an upside surprise.

An upbeat result may bolster global growth bets, adding to the appeal of higher-yielding currencies while further punishing the Yen. US CPI is also on tap, but the figures’ limited implications for recently outward-focused Fed policy bets may limit their market-moving potential.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:30

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (JUN)

6.0%

-

13.6%

00:20

USD

Fed's Kaplan Speaks in St. Louis

-

-

-

02:00

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)

6.2%

5.9%

6.0%

02:00

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUN)

6.0%

5.9%

5.9%

02:00

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)

10.6%

9.9%

10.0%

02:00

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUN)

10.3%

10.2%

10.2%

02:00

CNY

Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (JUN)

9.0%

9.4%

9.6%

02:00

CNY

GDP YTD (YoY) (2Q)

6.7%

6.6%

6.7%

02:00

CNY

GDP SA (QoQ) (2Q)

1.8%

1.6%

1.2%

02:00

CNY

GDP (YoY) (2Q)

6.7%

6.6%

6.7%

02:02

CNY

New Yuan Loans (CNY) (JUN)

1380.0b

1000.0b

985.5b

02:02

CNY

Aggregate Financing (CNY) (JUN)

1630.0b

1100.0b

659.9b

02:02

CNY

Money Supply M2 (YoY) (JUN)

11.8%

11.4%

11.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

EU27 New Car Registrations (JUN)

6.9% (A)

16.0%

Low

08:30

GBP

Construction Output (MoM) (MAY)

-1.2%

2.5%

Low

08:30

GBP

Construction Output (YoY) (MAY)

-3.5%

-3.7%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Trade Balance SA (MAY)

25.0b

28.0b

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Trade Balance NSA (MAY)

25.0b

27.5b

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (JUN)

0.2%

0.4%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (JUN F)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (JUN F)

0.9%

0.9%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0970

1.1047

1.1084

1.1124

1.1161

1.1201

1.1278

GBPUSD

1.2570

1.2939

1.3141

1.3308

1.3510

1.3677

1.4046

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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