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US Dollar Response to ISM Data May Hint at Post-NFP Price Action

US Dollar Response to ISM Data May Hint at Post-NFP Price Action

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • Yen gains, British Pound sinks on Brexit-linked stokes growth fears
  • Eurozone Retail PMIs unlikely to generate strong market response
  • US Dollar response to ISM data may hint at post-NFP price action

Risk aversion carried over from Wall Street trade and into Asian hours. The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars followed share prices lower. The anti-risk Japanese Yen and US Dollar outperformed. Tellingly, the British Pound proved weakest on the session, hinting that Brexit-related fears are pushing their way back to the forefront.

Market sentiment improved in the week following the initial post-referendum swoon after dramatic risk aversion triggered by the outcome didn’t immediately metastasize (akin to the 2008 failure of Lehman Brothers). The latest jitters seem to focus on Brexit’s growth implications for near-term economic growth. These appear to follow from comments by BOE Governor Mark Carney, who yesterday warned of “material slowing” in the UK.

Looking ahead, June’s Eurozone Retail PMI surveys headline a broadly quiet data docket in European trading hours. News-flow from the single currency area has increasingly improved relative to forecasts in recent weeks, rosy results may not offer lasting encouragement. Most of last month’s survey data was likely conducted before the UK EU membership referendum on June 23, meaning it understates the outcome’s impact on business activity. As such, investors may mostly overlook it.

The US Non-manufacturing ISM report comes into the spotlight later in the day. Expectations suggest the headline index will edge higher to 53.3, meaning service-sector activity growth accelerated in June after slumping to a two-year low in the prior month. A relative improvement in realized data outcomes compared with median estimates opens the door for a surprise on the upside.

While an improvement will almost certainly do little to revive near-term Fed rate hike bets, it may calm global slowdown fears to some extent. It will be curious to see how this reflected in the greenback, which has haven demand to thank for recent gains. That may offer clues about price action when the typically more impactful US Employment report is released on Friday.

Where are the markets going in the third quarter? See our forecasts here !

Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
23:01GBPBRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUN)-2.0%--1.8%

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXP/ACTPREVIMPACT
06:00EURGerman Factory Orders (MoM) (MAY)0.0% (A)-1.9%Medium
06:00EURGerman Factory Orders (YoY) (MAY)-0.2% (A)-0.4%Medium
07:00EURECB's Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt --Medium
07:30EURMarkit Germany Construction PMI (JUN)-52.7Low
07:30AUDRBA's Debelle on FX Code of Conduct Panel --Low
08:00GBPNew Car Registrations (YoY) (JUN)-2.5%Low
08:10EURMarkit Germany Retail PMI (JUN)-54.0Medium
08:10EURMarkit Eurozone Retail PMI (JUN)-50.6Medium
08:10EURMarkit France Retail PMI (JUN)-50.6Medium
08:10EURMarkit Italy Retail PMI (JUN)-45.2Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.08601.09841.10301.11081.11541.12321.1356
GBPUSD1.25221.28131.29181.31041.32091.33951.3686

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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