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Euro to Look Past PMI Data with "Brexit" Worries at the Forefront

Euro to Look Past PMI Data with "Brexit" Worries at the Forefront

2016-06-23 04:19:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound gains as polls suggest support for “Brexit” ebbing
  • Follow-through far from assured as markets’ risk appetite firms
  • Eurozone PMI data likely to likely to pass unnoticed by investors

The British Pound outperformed in overnight trade, rising against all of its major counterparts after a series of opinion polls showed respondents were leaning against so-called “Brexit” in the looming UK EU membership referendum. The anti-risk Japanese Yen slumped while the sentient-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars traded higher as the prospect of maintaining the status quo after the momentous vote lifted investors’ spirits.

S&P 500 futures are pointing firmly higher, hinting the risk-on mood may carry forward. Assuming as much seems dangerous however. Sentiment has been fickle in the run-up referendum and may swiftly change direction as voting begins and early indications begin to cross the wires. Even a seemingly trivial headline that hints the Leave campaign may be pulling ahead could swiftly sour the markets’ mood.

The preliminary set of June’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The region-wide composite measure is expected to show the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth modestly slowed, although median forecasts envision a print broadly in line with the medium-term trend.

The results are likely to pass mostly unnoticed. If UK voters opt for “Brexit”, the Euro looks decidedly vulnerable to aggressive volatility. If “Bremain” wins the day, the ECB is likely to remain in wait-and-see mode as it continues to implement stimulus measures announced earlier in the year. In this scenario, near-term activity data seems largely moot.

What are the essential traits of a successful trader? See our study to find out!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

01:30

JPY

BOJ’s Kiuchi Speaks in Kanazawa

-

-

-

01:45

CNY

MNI June Business Indicator

54.5

-

50.0

02:00

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (JUN P)

47.8

-

47.7

05:00

JPY

Leading Index CI (APR F)

-

100.5

05:00

JPY

Coincident Index (APR F)

-

112.2

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (JUN P)

48.7

48.4

Low

07:00

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (JUN P)

51.6

51.6

Low

07:00

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (JUN P)

51.0

50.9

Low

07:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (JUN P)

52.0

52.1

Medium

07:30

EUR

Markit Germany Services PMI (JUN P)

55.0

55.2

Medium

07:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (JUN P)

54.3

54.5

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (JUN P)

51.4

51.5

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (JUN P)

53.2

53.3

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (JUN P)

53.0

53.1

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1088

1.1189

1.1243

1.1290

1.1344

1.1391

1.1492

GBPUSD

1.4444

1.4576

1.4641

1.4708

1.4773

1.4840

1.4972

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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