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Currencies to Look Past BOE, SNB as Brexit Fears Sink Sentiment

Currencies to Look Past BOE, SNB as Brexit Fears Sink Sentiment

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Yen soars as status-quo BOJ rate decision unleashes risk-off capital flows
  • “Brexit” fears sink Aussie, Canadian Dollars alongside Asian stock prices
  • FX markets to look past SNB, BOE and US CPI as risk-off trade continues

The Japanese Yen moved sharply higher in overnight trade after the Bank of Japan opted not to expand monetary stimulus. The outcome was widely expected while the central bank’s policy statement struck a familiar tone, which makes the currency’s outsized reaction somewhat curious. Indeed, prices jumped nearly two percent to score their largest increase in nearly two months.

The dramatic rally may reflect pent-up demand for the anti-risk unit against a backdrop of deepening risk aversion across global financial markets. Indeed, the CVIX gauge of one-month implied FX volatility has surged to the highest level since 2011 as next week’s “Brexit” referendum nears. With that in mind, the passing of the BOJ rate decision may have simply cleared the air for capital inflows.

The sentiment-linked Australian and Canadian Dollars followed Asian stocks downward and the British Pound came under renewed selling pressure after a single session’s respite yesterday. Sterling’s slide mirrored that of Australian and Japanese equity benchmarks as well as US stock futures, underscoring the centrality of UK political risk as the source of investors’ dour mood.

The New Zealand Dollar managed to buck the trend elsewhere in the commodity FX space, with prices rising after upbeat first-quarter GDP data crossed the wires. The currency traded higher alongside front-end yields, signaling that the figures weighed against RBNZ interest rate cut speculation. Still, the priced-in probability of a 25bps cut at the central bank’s next meeting in August is relatively elevated at 54 percent.

Monetary policy announcements from the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. A pickup in Swiss inflation over recent months probably means that the SNB is unlikely to feel pressured into action. Meanwhile, the BOE will almost certainly save its ammunition for whatever is to follow next week’s referendum.

US CPI figures enter the spotlight later in the day, with the core year-on-year inflation rate expected to edge higher to 2.2 percent. The outcome may not offer much support to the US Dollar however considering its limited implications for near-term Fed monetary policy. Indeed, yesterday’s FOMC policy announcement was interpreted as broadly dovish by the markets despite an upgrade in officials’ price growth outlook.

On balance, this is likely to see sentiment trends remain at the forefront. S&P 500 futures are pointing sharply lower, hinting that the risk aversion is like to carry forward into the hours ahead. This bodes suggests that overnight FX trade dynamics are poised to continue.

Losing money trading in the FX markets? This might be why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

GDP SA (QoQ) (1Q)

0.7%

0.5%

0.9%

22:45

NZD

GDP (YoY) (1Q)

2.8%

2.6%

2.3%

01:00

AUD

Consumer Inflation Expectation (JUN)

3.5%

-

3.2%

01:30

AUD

Employment Change (MAY)

19.9k

15.0k

10.6k

01:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (MAY)

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

01:30

AUD

Full Time Employment Change (MAY)

0.0k

-

-9.3k

01:30

AUD

Part Time Employment Change (MAY)

17.9k

-

19.1k

01:30

AUD

Participation Rate (MAY)

64.8%

64.9%

64.8%

01:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (MAY)

-1.1%

-

-2.8%

01:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAY)

1.7%

-

2.2%

01:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Government (MAY)

-916m

-

-991m

01:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Market (MAY)

909m

-

946m

01:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Other (MAY)

25m

-

68m

02:45

JPY

BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base

¥80t

¥80t

¥80t

02:45

JPY

BOJ Basic Balance Rate

0.1%

-

0.1%

02:45

JPY

BOJ Policy Rate

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

04:00

JPY

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (MAY)

-14.1%

-

-13.5%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

05:45

CHF

SECO June 2016 Economic Forecasts

-

-

Low

07:00

CHF

KOF Institute Summer Economic Forecast

-

-

Low

07:30

CHF

SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range

-1.25%

-1.25%

High

07:30

CHF

SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range

-0.25%

-0.25%

High

07:30

CHF

SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate

-0.75%

-0.75%

High

08:00

EUR

ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin

-

-

Low

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAY)

0.3%

1.5%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAY)

3.8%

4.2%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAY)

0.2%

1.3%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAY)

3.9%

4.3%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) (MAY)

0.3%

0.0%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) (MAY F)

-0.1%

-0.1%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI Core (YoY) (MAY F)

0.8%

0.8%

Medium

09:15

EUR

ECB's Nowotny Speaks at EU Commission Panel

-

-

Low

11:00

GBP

Bank of England Bank Rate (JUN 16)

0.5%

0.5%

High

11:00

GBP

BOE Asset Purchase Target (JUN)

375b

375b

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1033

1.1141

1.1201

1.1249

1.1309

1.1357

1.1465

GBPUSD

1.3924

1.4048

1.4127

1.4172

1.4251

1.4296

1.4420

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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