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British Pound May Ignore UK CPI Data as Brexit Fears Swell

British Pound May Ignore UK CPI Data as Brexit Fears Swell

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

The British Pound slumped overnight after another batch of polls – this time from YouGov and ICM – showed growing support for taking the UK out of the EU at a referendum on June 23. The Japanese Yen traded higher as stocks declined on most Asian bourses, offering support for the anti-risk currency.

The New Zealand Dollar came under pressure against a backdrop of rising RBNZ rate cut speculation. The currency fell alongside front-end bond yields as the priced-in probability of a 25bps reduction in the baseline cash rate jumped to 60 percent from just 24 percent two sessions ago.

May’s UK CPI report headlines the economic calendar in European hours, with the core year-on-year inflation rate expected to rise to 1.3 percent. An upbeat result seems unlikely to inspire a lasting response from financial markets however as Brexit fears continue to dominate the spotlight.

Later in the day, the focus will shift to US Retail Sales data. Receipts are expected to have added 0.3 percent in May, marking a slowdown from the 1.3 percent gain in the prior month. A bleak result may bolster speculation on a dovish posture at this week’s FOMC meeting and weigh on the US Dollar.

However, May’s dismal US jobs data has already triggered a sharp dovish shift in Fed policy bets. This may make for limited follow-through on a soft retail sales print as investors wait for Janet Yellen and company to confirm their suspicions later in the week.

Are traders buying or selling the Pound ahead of the Brexit vote? Find out here !

Asia Session

22:45NZDFood Prices (MoM) (MAY)-0.5%-0.3%
01:30AUDNAB Business Conditions (MAY)10-10
01:30AUDNAB Business Confidence (MAY)3-5
01:30AUDCredit Card Purchases (APR)A$23.5b-A$25.5b
01:30AUDCredit Card Balances (APR)A$51.8b-A$51.8b
04:30JPYIndustrial Production (MoM) (APR F) 0.5%-0.3%
04:30JPYIndustrial Production (YoY) (APR F) -3.3%--3.5%
04:30JPYCapacity Utilization (MoM) (APR)-1.0%-3.2%

European Session

07:15CHFProducer & Import Prices (MoM) (MAY)0.1%0.3%Low
07:15CHFProducer & Import Prices (YoY) (MAY)-1.5%-2.4%Low
08:30GBPCPI (MoM) (MAY)0.3%0.1%High
08:30GBPCPI (YoY) (MAY)0.4%0.3%High
08:30GBPCPI Core (YoY) (MAY)1.3%1.2%High
08:30GBPRPI (MoM) (MAY)0.3%0.1%Medium
08:30GBPRPI (YoY) (MAY)1.5%1.3%Medium
08:30GBPRPI Ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (MAY)1.5%1.4%Low
08:30GBPPPI Input NSA (MoM) (MAY)0.9%0.9%Low
08:30GBPPPI Input NSA (YoY) (MAY)-5.1%-6.5%Low
08:30GBPPPI Output NSA (MoM) (MAY)0.3%0.4%Medium
08:30GBPPPI Output NSA (YoY) (MAY)-0.5%-0.7%Medium
08:30GBPPPI Output Core NSA (MoM) (MAY)0.1%0.2%Low
08:30GBPPPI Output Core NSA (YoY) (MAY)0.6%0.5%Low
09:00EUREurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (APR)0.8%-0.8%Medium
09:00EUREurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (APR)1.4%0.2%Medium
09:00EUREurozone Employment (QoQ) (1Q)-0.3%Low
09:00EUREurozone Employment (YoY) (1Q)-1.2%Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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