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British Pound May Ignore UK CPI Data as Brexit Fears Swell

British Pound May Ignore UK CPI Data as Brexit Fears Swell

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Brexit-leaning polls keep British Pound under pressure in Asian trade
  • New Zealand Dollar down as RBNZ rate cut probability swells to 60%
  • Follow-through on UK CPI, US Retail Sales figures may prove limited

The British Pound slumped overnight after another batch of polls – this time from YouGov and ICM – showed growing support for taking the UK out of the EU at a referendum on June 23. The Japanese Yen traded higher as stocks declined on most Asian bourses, offering support for the anti-risk currency.

The New Zealand Dollar came under pressure against a backdrop of rising RBNZ rate cut speculation. The currency fell alongside front-end bond yields as the priced-in probability of a 25bps reduction in the baseline cash rate jumped to 60 percent from just 24 percent two sessions ago.

May’s UK CPI report headlines the economic calendar in European hours, with the core year-on-year inflation rate expected to rise to 1.3 percent. An upbeat result seems unlikely to inspire a lasting response from financial markets however as Brexit fears continue to dominate the spotlight.

Later in the day, the focus will shift to US Retail Sales data. Receipts are expected to have added 0.3 percent in May, marking a slowdown from the 1.3 percent gain in the prior month. A bleak result may bolster speculation on a dovish posture at this week’s FOMC meeting and weigh on the US Dollar.

However, May’s dismal US jobs data has already triggered a sharp dovish shift in Fed policy bets. This may make for limited follow-through on a soft retail sales print as investors wait for Janet Yellen and company to confirm their suspicions later in the week.

Are traders buying or selling the Pound ahead of the Brexit vote? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Food Prices (MoM) (MAY)

-0.5%

-

0.3%

01:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (MAY)

10

-

10

01:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (MAY)

3

-

5

01:30

AUD

Credit Card Purchases (APR)

A$23.5b

-

A$25.5b

01:30

AUD

Credit Card Balances (APR)

A$51.8b

-

A$51.8b

04:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (APR F)

0.5%

-

0.3%

04:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (APR F)

-3.3%

-

-3.5%

04:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (APR)

-1.0%

-

3.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (MAY)

0.1%

0.3%

Low

07:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (MAY)

-1.5%

-2.4%

Low

08:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (MAY)

0.3%

0.1%

High

08:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (MAY)

0.4%

0.3%

High

08:30

GBP

CPI Core (YoY) (MAY)

1.3%

1.2%

High

08:30

GBP

RPI (MoM) (MAY)

0.3%

0.1%

Medium

08:30

GBP

RPI (YoY) (MAY)

1.5%

1.3%

Medium

08:30

GBP

RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (MAY)

1.5%

1.4%

Low

08:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (MoM) (MAY)

0.9%

0.9%

Low

08:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (YoY) (MAY)

-5.1%

-6.5%

Low

08:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (MoM) (MAY)

0.3%

0.4%

Medium

08:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (YoY) (MAY)

-0.5%

-0.7%

Medium

08:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (MoM) (MAY)

0.1%

0.2%

Low

08:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) (MAY)

0.6%

0.5%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (APR)

0.8%

-0.8%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (APR)

1.4%

0.2%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Employment (QoQ) (1Q)

-

0.3%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Employment (YoY) (1Q)

-

1.2%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1134

1.1205

1.1248

1.1276

1.1319

1.1347

1.1418

GBPUSD

1.3814

1.4026

1.4148

1.4238

1.4360

1.4450

1.4662

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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