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Aussie Dollar Rally May Continue as China Data Boosts Sentiment

Aussie Dollar Rally May Continue as China Data Boosts Sentiment

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar corrects lower having surged following RBA meeting
  • Japanese Yen gains as Asian share prices pull back from monthly high
  • Unexpected Chinese imports jump may stoke recovery in risk appetite

A lull in high-profile event risk made for a quiet overnight session for most major currencies. The Australian Dollar corrected lower having outperformed in the aftermath of the RBA monetary policy announcement in the prior session. The anti-risk Japanese Yen edged higher as Asian stocks pulled back after the MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index hit a monthly high yesterday.

Looking ahead, the absence of top-tier news items on the docket is likely to keep sentiment trends at the forefront, with upbeat Chinese trade figures a possible catalyst for a recovery in risk appetite. Imports unexpectedly rose 5.1 percent year-on-year in May, the most since September 2014. Signs of firming demand in the world’s second-largest economy may stoke broad-based optimism, boosting commodity-bloc FX while capping Yen gains.

Losing money trading the FX markets? This might be why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Mfg Activity Volume (QoQ) (1Q)

-1.2%

-

0.8%

22:45

NZD

Mfg Activity SA (QoQ) (1Q)

-2.60%

-

-2.3%

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Balance (¥) (APR)

1878.5b

2303.0b

2980.4b

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Adjusted (¥) (APR)

1625.8b

2013.7b

1893.6b

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance BoP Basis (¥) (APR)

697.1b

919.0b

927.2b

23:50

JPY

GDP SA (QoQ) (1Q F)

0.5%

0.5%

0.4%

23:50

JPY

GDP Annualized SA (QoQ) (1Q F)

1.9%

1.9%

1.7%

23:50

JPY

GDP Nominal SA (QoQ) (1Q F)

0.6%

0.6%

0.5%

23:50

JPY

GDP Deflator (YoY) (1Q F)

0.9%

0.9%

0.9%

23:50

JPY

GDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (1Q F)

0.6%

0.5%

0.5%

23:50

JPY

GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (1Q F)

-0.7%

-0.4%

-1.4%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Incl Trusts (YoY) (MAY)

2.2%

-

2.2%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Ex-Trusts (YoY) (MAY)

2.2%

2.3%

2.2%

01:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) (APR)

1.7%

2.5%

-0.7%

01:30

AUD

Investment Lending (APR)

-5.0%

-

0.8%

01:30

AUD

Owner-Occupier Loan Value (MoM) (APR)

0.1%

-

-1.1%

03:07

CNY

Trade Balance ($) (MAY)

49.89b

55.70b

45.56b

03:07

CNY

Exports ($) (YoY) (MAY)

-4.1%

-4.0%

-1.8%

03:07

CNY

Imports ($) (YoY) (MAY)

-0.4%

-6.8%

-10.9%

03:07

CNY

Trade Balance (CNY) (MAY)

324.77b

387.20b

298.00b

03:07

CNY

Exports (CNY) (YoY) (MAY)

1.2%

1.5%

4.1%

03:07

CNY

Imports (CNY) (YoY) (MAY)

5.1%

-2.5%

-5.7%

04:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAY)

-7.32%

-

-7.08%

05:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Current (MAY)

43.0

43.4

43.5

05:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (MAY)

47.3

45.9

45.5

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) (MAY)

0.2%

0.3%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI (YoY) (MAY)

-0.4%

-0.4%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAY)

0.2%

0.2%

Low

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAY)

-0.5%

-0.5%

Low

08:00

EUR

ECB's Hansson gives news conference

-

-

Low

08:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (APR)

0.0%

0.3%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (APR)

-0.4%

-0.2%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (APR)

-0.1%

0.1%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (APR)

-1.5%

-1.9%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1275

1.1317

1.1338

1.1359

1.1380

1.1401

1.1443

GBP/USD

1.4106

1.4327

1.4436

1.4548

1.4657

1.4769

1.4990

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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