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Aussie Dollar Rally May Continue as China Data Boosts Sentiment

Aussie Dollar Rally May Continue as China Data Boosts Sentiment

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar corrects lower having surged following RBA meeting
  • Japanese Yen gains as Asian share prices pull back from monthly high
  • Unexpected Chinese imports jump may stoke recovery in risk appetite

A lull in high-profile event risk made for a quiet overnight session for most major currencies. The Australian Dollar corrected lower having outperformed in the aftermath of the RBA monetary policy announcement in the prior session. The anti-risk Japanese Yen edged higher as Asian stocks pulled back after the MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index hit a monthly high yesterday.

Looking ahead, the absence of top-tier news items on the docket is likely to keep sentiment trends at the forefront, with upbeat Chinese trade figures a possible catalyst for a recovery in risk appetite. Imports unexpectedly rose 5.1 percent year-on-year in May, the most since September 2014. Signs of firming demand in the world’s second-largest economy may stoke broad-based optimism, boosting commodity-bloc FX while capping Yen gains.

Losing money trading the FX markets? This might be why.

Asia Session

22:45NZDMfg Activity Volume (QoQ) (1Q)-1.2%-0.8%
22:45NZDMfg Activity SA (QoQ) (1Q)-2.60%--2.3%
23:50JPYBoP Current Account Balance (¥) (APR)1878.5b2303.0b2980.4b
23:50JPYBoP Current Account Adjusted (¥) (APR)1625.8b2013.7b1893.6b
23:50JPYTrade Balance BoP Basis (¥) (APR)697.1b919.0b927.2b
23:50JPYGDP SA (QoQ) (1Q F)0.5%0.5%0.4%
23:50JPYGDP Annualized SA (QoQ) (1Q F)1.9%1.9%1.7%
23:50JPYGDP Nominal SA (QoQ) (1Q F)0.6%0.6%0.5%
23:50JPYGDP Deflator (YoY) (1Q F)0.9%0.9%0.9%
23:50JPYGDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (1Q F)0.6%0.5%0.5%
23:50JPYGDP Business Spending (QoQ) (1Q F)-0.7%-0.4%-1.4%
23:50JPYBank Lending Incl Trusts (YoY) (MAY)2.2%-2.2%
23:50JPYBank Lending Ex-Trusts (YoY) (MAY)2.2%2.3%2.2%
01:30AUDHome Loans (MoM) (APR)1.7%2.5%-0.7%
01:30AUDInvestment Lending (APR)-5.0%-0.8%
01:30AUDOwner-Occupier Loan Value (MoM) (APR)0.1%--1.1%
03:07CNYTrade Balance ($) (MAY)49.89b55.70b45.56b
03:07CNYExports ($) (YoY) (MAY)-4.1%-4.0%-1.8%
03:07CNYImports ($) (YoY) (MAY)-0.4%-6.8%-10.9%
03:07CNYTrade Balance (CNY) (MAY)324.77b387.20b298.00b
03:07CNYExports (CNY) (YoY) (MAY)1.2%1.5%4.1%
03:07CNYImports (CNY) (YoY) (MAY)5.1%-2.5%-5.7%
04:30JPYBankruptcies (YoY) (MAY)-7.32%--7.08%
05:00JPYEco Watchers Survey Current (MAY)43.043.443.5
05:00JPYEco Watchers Survey Outlook (MAY)47.345.945.5

European Session

07:15CHFCPI (MoM) (MAY)0.2%0.3%Medium
07:15CHFCPI (YoY) (MAY)-0.4%-0.4%Medium
07:15CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAY)0.2%0.2%Low
07:15CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAY)-0.5%-0.5%Low
08:00EURECB's Hansson gives news conference--Low
08:30GBPIndustrial Production (MoM) (APR)0.0%0.3%Medium
08:30GBPIndustrial Production (YoY) (APR)-0.4%-0.2%Medium
08:30GBPManufacturing Production (MoM) (APR)-0.1%0.1%Medium
08:30GBPManufacturing Production (YoY) (APR)-1.5%-1.9%Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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