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British Pound Drops on Brexit Fears, Yellen Speech in Focus Ahead

British Pound Drops on Brexit Fears, Yellen Speech in Focus Ahead

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound slumps vs. majors as latest polls revive “Brexit” jitters
  • Comments from Fed’s Mester help US Dollar bounce after brutal drop
  • All eyes on Fed Chair Yellen following May’s grim employment data

The British Pound underperformed in overnight trade after a new round of polls showed voters are warming up to the idea of the UK leaving the European Union ahead of a referendum on membership later this month. A YouGov poll returned a 45 versus 41 percent split in favor of “Brexit”, while a separate TNS survey showed a 43 to 41 percent preference for leaving.

The US Dollar rose against all of its top counterparts in a move that appeared to be corrective after the currency suffered the largest drop in over two years on Friday. The selloff followed deeply disappointing set of labor-market figures that weighed against near-term rate hike speculation.

Supportive comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester over the weekend may have likewise helped the greenback. Mester said that while the jobs data was a disappointment, policymakers can’t read too much into one number. She added that the report did not fundamentally alter her outlook, with the economy “definitely” moving in the right direction.

Looking ahead, a relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see markets looking ahead to scheduled commentary from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Falling back on the central bank’s commitment to “data dependency” is likely to be seen as dovish, weighing on the greenback. Alternatively, rhetoric suggesting the Fed intends to look past May’s report as a one-off anomaly may offer a lifeline to the battered benchmark unit.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:00

AUD

Melbourne Institute Inflation (MoM) (MAY)

-0.2%

-

0.1%

1:00

AUD

Melbourne Institute Inflation (YoY) (MAY)

1.0%

-

1.5%

1:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAY)

2.4%

-

-0.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

Germany Factory Orders (MoM) (APR)

-0.5%

1.9%

Medium

6:00

EUR

Germany Factory Orders (YoY) (APR)

0.6%

1.7%

Medium

7:30

EUR

Markit Germany Construction PMI (MAY)

-

53.4

Low

8:00

GBP

New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAY)

-

2.0%

Low

8:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits

-

494.1b

Low

8:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits

-

420.7b

Low

8:00

EUR

ECB's Nowotny on Austrian Economic Outlook

-

-

Medium

8:00

EUR

ECB VP Constancio Speaks in Frankfurt

-

-

Medium

8:10

EUR

Markit Germany Retail PMI (MAY)

-

51.0

Low

8:10

EUR

Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (MAY)

-

47.9

Low

8:10

EUR

Markit France Retail PMI (MAY)

-

48.2

Low

8:10

EUR

Markit Italy Retail PMI (MAY)

-

42.6

Low

8:30

EUR

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (JUN)

7.0

6.2

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0819

1.1056

1.1211

1.1293

1.1448

1.1530

1.1767

GBP/USD

1.4134

1.4317

1.4417

1.4500

1.4600

1.4683

1.4866

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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