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US Dollar May Extend Gains on Hawkish Fed Commentary

US Dollar May Extend Gains on Hawkish Fed Commentary

2016-05-19 05:09:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Yen gains, commodity-bloc FX drops amid risk aversion in Asian trade
  • Australian Dollar underperforms after disappointing labor-market data
  • US Dollar may extend advance as Fed-speak boosts June rate hike bets

The anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed while sentiment-linked commodity bloc currencies faced selling pressure as risk aversion swept financial markets in Asian trading hours. The dour mood appeared to reflect follow-on momentum after a drop Wall Street triggered by hawkish rhetoric within minutes from April’s FOMC meeting (as expected). The Australian Dollar suffered outsized losses in the wake of disappointing labor-market figures.

Looking ahead, a lull in high-profile event risk offers markets space for consolidation as investors digest yesterday’s volatility surge. Another round of Fed-speak may break the quiet however as Fed policy speculation heats up anew. Comments from Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and Bill Dudley, the President of the central bank’s New York branch, are due to cross the wires.

Fischer and Dudley represent the central core of the rate-setting FOMC committee, suggesting their views are likely to match the majority consensus. If their tone matches the hawkish lean on display in the Minutes document, the US Dollar is likely to continue higher and another round of risk aversion may strike the broader markets. As it stands, the priced-in probability of a rate increase in June has surged to 34 percent from just 4 percent at the start of the week.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (APR)

1.7%

-

3.1%

23:50

JPY

Housing Loans (YoY) (1Q)

1.9%

-

2.2%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (MAR)

5.5%

-2.0%

-9.2%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY) (MAR)

3.2%

0.8%

-0.7%

01:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (MAY)

116.2

-

120.0

01:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAY)

-3.2%

-

1.7%

01:30

AUD

Employment Change (APR)

-10.8k

12.0k

25.7k

01:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (APR)

5.7%

5.8%

5.7%

01:30

AUD

Full Time Employment Change (APR)

-9.3k

-

-10.0k

01:30

AUD

Part Time Employment Change (APR)

20.2k

-

35.7k

01:30

AUD

Participation Rate (APR)

64.8

64.9%

64.9%

01:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Government (APR)

-991m

-

-978m

01:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Market (APR)

946m

-

954m

01:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Other (APR)

68m

-

44m

01:45

CNY

MNI Business Indicator (MAY)

50.0

50.5

04:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAR)

-

0.7%

-1.2%

06:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR F)

-

-

-26.4%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

-

-

G7 FinMins, Central Bank Governors Meet

-

-

Medium

08:00

EUR

ECB Current Account SA (MAR)

-

19.0b

Low

08:00

EUR

Current Account NSA (MAR)

-

11.1b

Low

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (APR)

0.6%

-1.6%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (APR)

2.0%

1.8%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM) (APR)

0.6%

-1.3%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (YoY) (APR)

2.5%

2.7%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (MoM) (MAR)

-

-1.1%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (YoY) (MAR)

-

2.5%

Low

11:30

EUR

ECB Account of April Policy Meeting

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1045

1.1147

1.1181

1.1249

1.1283

1.1351

1.1453

GBP/USD

1.4084

1.4315

1.4457

1.4546

1.4688

1.4777

1.5008

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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