We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Hello there, traders! Themes for this week's webinar: - US-China #tradewar - #HongKongProstests: Carrie Lam's visit to Beijing - #UKElections2019 recap + outlook - Government shutdown in 2020? - Update on #RCEP - CRUCIAL rate decision this week⬇️ https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/146770987
  • With increasing volatility in weather patterns, how might storms, hurricanes, and floods rattle the supply chain for petroleum-based products and impact crude oil prices? Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/O4dgBl47fq https://t.co/eMb7iCfdqS
  • Join analyst @DavidJSong at 5:30 PM ET/10:30 PM GMT for your weekly update on key news trading events. Register here: https://t.co/gBlrRpCc55 https://t.co/1rVzPr6gx4
  • See the DailyFX Fundamental and Technical forecasts for the week ahead on the major currencies, indices and commodities here: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2019/12/15/Dow-Pound-and-Aussie-Dollar-Test-Post-Trade-War-Election-Breakouts.html
  • The US-China agreement brings this scene from camp cinema history to mind: https://t.co/WsfoGMZbw1 via @GIPHY https://t.co/h045efj8Em
  • What is the ascending triangle and how can you trade it? Find out here: https://t.co/SyL29jQflv https://t.co/F8415DaNGE
  • The politics of the US and UK may be starkly divided but their grip on the vast, $6.6 trillion global foreign exchange trade seems as tight as ever. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/xTKHOvrIqg https://t.co/z7ogzy00dy
  • What are the Market cycles? How are #currencies impacted in these cycles? How can these cycles impact #forextrading patterns? Find out here: https://t.co/ckr2fUOWqW https://t.co/g7iT8bpi7f
  • What are a few of the common trading mistakes made by traders? Find out from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/d3OFc4yGao #tradingstyle https://t.co/wQ1MAkOb0n
  • The UK population voted the Conservative government back in with a strong majority, giving PM Johnson the backing to push Brexit through. And Sterling (GBP) likes it. Get you $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/tjCHWDxoWm https://t.co/Z7Vaadxy5r
US Dollar Aims Higher as FOMC Minutes Fuel Rate Hike Bets

US Dollar Aims Higher as FOMC Minutes Fuel Rate Hike Bets

2016-05-18 06:59:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar outperforms as hawkish Fed-speak boosts rate hike bets
  • April FOMC minutes may send USD higher, trigger risk aversion
  • UK jobless claims, revised Eurozone CPI figures likely non-events

The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising against its major counterparts amid building Fed rate hike speculation. Indeed, the benchmark currency advanced in lock-step with front-end US Treasury bond yields. The move follows hawkish comments from John Williams and Dennis Lockhart, Presidents of the Federal Reserve’s San Francisco and Atlanta branches, respectively.

Both Lockhart and Williams argued in favor of two to three interest rate hikes in 2016, with the latter even going so far as to say policymakers’ references to “gradual” tightening imply this plus three to four increases in 2017. Lockhart went on to say that opinions on the FOMC are in a “pretty tight range” – signaling that his hawkish lean represents a majority of officials – and added that he doesn’t rule out raising rates before June’s “Brexit” referendum. Williams stated point-blank that, based on the data, raising rates makes sense.

The Fed’s aggressive call for four 2016 rate hikes as it began outright tightening in December 2015 spooked investors pricing in just two increases. This triggered risk aversion that echoed back into policy bets, fueling a dovish shift. In March, the Fed appeared to recognize its communication error and went about fixing it, slashing the 2016 outlook to match what investors had been comfortable with prior to “liftoff” (50bps in hikes) and blaming the slump in sentiment on external threats (lest admitting to a misstep tarnishes the central bank’s credibility).

Last month, the Fed’s policy statement pointedly de-emphasized outside headwinds and subsequent official commentary began to build toward an increasingly hawkish tone. The aforementioned remarks from Lockhart and Williams amounted to the strongest language yet from the mainstream core at the heart of the policy-setting apparatus. Taken together, this looks like a coordinated effort to realign official and market-based rate hike bets to make for smooth resumption of stimulus withdrawal.

The upcoming release of minutes from April’s FOMC meeting is the next critical inflection point in this narrative. Rhetoric suggesting that the markets are underestimating the US central bank’s determination to raise rates again in the near term as well as the extent of tightening on tap this year is likely to encourage continued gains for the greenback. It may likewise trigger risk aversion, threatening to deliver outsized losses to the sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars.

On the European data docket, UK Jobless Claims data seems unlikely to inspire a significant response from the British Pound considering the outcome’s limited implications for near-term BOE policy trends, especially with the “Brexit” vote on the horizon. Revised Eurozone CPI figures are also likely to pass with little fanfare as the ECB remains in wait-and-see mode, waiting to gather sufficient evidence to judge the efficacy of the gargantuan stimulus effort it launched earlier in the year.

Check out the latest standings for the FXCM $10k trading contest HERE.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

PPI Input (QoQ) (1Q)

-1.0%

-

-1.2%

22:45

NZD

PPI Output (QoQ) (1Q)

-0.2%

-

-0.8%

23:50

JPY

GDP SA (QoQ) (1Q P)

0.4%

0.1%

-0.4%

23:50

JPY

GDP Annualized SA (QoQ) (1Q P)

1.7%

0.3%

-1.7%

23:50

JPY

GDP Nominal SA (QoQ) (1Q P)

0.5%

0.5%

-0.2%

23:50

JPY

GDP Deflator (YoY) (1Q P)

0.9%

1.0%

1.5%

23:50

JPY

GDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (1Q P)

0.5%

0.2%

-0.8%

23:50

JPY

GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (1Q P)

-1.4%

-0.8%

1.2%

0:30

AUD

Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (APR)

0.24%

-

-0.10%

1:30

CNY

China April Property Prices

-

-

-

1:30

AUD

Wage Price Index (QoQ) (1Q)

0.4%

0.5%

0.5%

1:30

AUD

Wage Price Index (YoY) (1Q)

2.1%

2.2%

2.2%

4:00

JPY

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (APR)

-13.5%

-

-39.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Rate (APR)

2.1%

2.1%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Jobless Claims Change (APR)

5.0k

6.7k

Medium

8:30

GBP

Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (MAR)

1.7%

1.8%

Low

8:30

GBP

Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (MAR)

2.3%

2.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths (MAR)

5.1%

5.1%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Employment Change (3M/3M) (MAR)

0k

20k

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (APR)

0.0%

1.2%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (APR F)

-0.2%

-0.2%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (APR F)

0.7%

0.7%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1227

1.1274

1.1294

1.1321

1.1341

1.1368

1.1415

GBP/USD

1.4210

1.4336

1.4399

1.4462

1.4525

1.4588

1.4714

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.