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Yen Falls, Australian Dollar Gains as Markets Shrug Off China Data

Yen Falls, Australian Dollar Gains as Markets Shrug Off China Data

2016-05-16 08:19:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Yen falls, Aussie and Kiwi Dollars rise as markets shrug off China data
  • Sentiment trends at the forefront on thinevent risk in quiet holiday trade
  • US Dollar unlikely to find strong lead on pre-positioning for CPI report

The anti-risk Japanese Yen traded lower while the sentiment-linked Australian Dollar outperformed as risk appetite firmed at the start of the trading week. The weekly trading open was marked by initial negativity as investors reacted to disappointing Chinese data released over the weekend. The dour mood swiftly dissipated however, with the MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index rising 0.7 percent.

The absence of noteworthy event risk on the European data docket is likely to see risk appetite trends remain in the spotlight. Directional conviction is absent for the time being however, with S&P 500 futures trading little-changed to start the week. Observance of the Whit Monday holiday in many key European markets may make for quiet, consolidative trade until Wall Street comes online.

Tuesday will bring potent news-flow as April’s UK and US CPI figures cross the wires. The former seems unlikely to draw significant attention absent a dramatic deviation from expectations as June’s “Brexit” referendum looms large for investors. The latter is expected to show the gap between headline and core inflation fell to a three-month low of 1 percent however, which may boost Fed rate hike bets.

Pre-positioning for such a possibility may see the US Dollar extend last week’s gains. With that said, the greenback capped a second consecutive week of strong gains by hitting a two-month high. The lull in high-profile event risk may open the door for profit-taking as investors move portfolios closer to neutral ahead of on-coming data releases. In either scenario however, follow-through seems likely to be tepid at best.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

NZD

Performance Services Index (APR)

57.7

-

55.1

23:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (MAY)

0.4%

-

1.3%

23:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (MAY)

7.8%

-

7.3%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (MAR)

2.58%

-

2.32%

23:50

JPY

PPI (MoM) (APR)

-0.3%

0.2%

-0.1%

23:50

JPY

PPI (YoY) (APR)

-4.2%

-3.7%

-3.8%

06:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR P)

-26.4%

-

-21.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

-

-

-

-

-

-

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1130

1.1227

1.1268

1.1324

1.1365

1.1421

1.1518

GBP/USD

1.4157

1.4272

1.4319

1.4387

1.4434

1.4502

1.4617

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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