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US Dollar May Find Support Despite Soft Economic News-Flow

US Dollar May Find Support Despite Soft Economic News-Flow

2016-05-13 07:28:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Yen gains, Aussie and NZ Dollars drop on risk aversion in Asia trade
  • S&P 500 futures hint risk-off mood set to continue into the week-end
  • Sentiment trends may trump policy bets if US news-flow disappoints

The anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed while the sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars traded lower as investors’ mood soured in overnight trade. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index fell 1 percent. S&P 500 futures are pointing sharply lower ahead, hinting the risk-off mood is aiming to carry through into the final hours of the trading week.

On the economic data front, US news-flow returns to the spotlight as retail sales figures and a gauge of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan cross the wires. The former reading is expected to show receipts added 0.8 percent in April, marking the largest gain in 11 months. The latter is projected to edge higher in May after hitting a seven-month low in the prior month.

Realized outcomes on US economic releases have increasingly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-March, hinting that analysts’ models are overstating performance and opening the door for disappointing results. Such a scenario might prove more damaging for risk trends than the US Dollar however.

Deterioration in US data has echoed into priced-in FOMC rate hike expectations, with forecasts implied in Fed Funds futures and overnight index swaps (OIS) sliding in tandem over the past two months. As it stands, markets envision at most one 25 basis point increase in the benchmark lending rate it fourth quarter despite hawkish exhortations from Fed policymakers and official forecasts calling for double that.

On balance, this means a dovish surprise may be hard to come by. This means soft news-flow may be interpreted in terms of its implications for global growth trends, amplifying risk aversion and adding fuel for continuation of overnight trading patterns. The greenback may even rise against most majors (with the exception of the Yen) in this scenario if the dour enough for its safe-haven credentials to be reclaimed.

Check out the latest standings for the FXCM $10k trading contest HERE.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (1Q)

0.8%

1.0%

1.1%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M2 (YoY) (APR)

3.3%

3.2%

3.2%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M3 (YoY) (APR)

2.7%

2.6%

2.6%

3:00

NZD

Non Resident Bond Holdings (APR)

66.5%

--

67.4%

3:30

JPY

BOJ's Kuroda speaks in Tokyo

--

--

--

4:30

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (MAR)

-0.7%

-0.1%

0.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (APR F)

-0.4% (A)

-0.4%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (APR F)

-0.1% (A)

-0.1%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (APR F)

-0.5% (A)

-0.5%

Low

6:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (APR F)

-0.3% (A)

-0.3%

Low

6:00

EUR

German GDP SA (QoQ) (1Q P)

0.7% (A)

0.3%

High

6:00

EUR

German GDP WDA (YoY) (1Q P)

1.6% (A)

1.3%

High

6:00

EUR

German GDP NSA (YoY) (1Q P)

1.3% (A)

2.1%

High

6:00

EUR

EU27 New Car Registrations (APR)

9.1% (A)

6.0%

Low

8:30

GBP

Construction Output SA (MoM) (MAR)

-3.2%

-0.3%

Low

8:30

GBP

Construction Output SA (YoY) (MAR)

-2.7%

0.3%

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP SA (QoQ) (1Q P)

0.6%

0.6%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP SA (YoY) (1Q P)

1.6%

1.6%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1276

1.1334

1.1356

1.1392

1.1414

1.1450

1.1508

GBP/USD

1.4213

1.4338

1.4394

1.4463

1.4519

1.4588

1.4713

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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