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US Dollar May Rise if Fed Comments Point to Tighter Job Market

US Dollar May Rise if Fed Comments Point to Tighter Job Market

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Quiet European, US data docket puts Fed-speak in the spotlight
  • US Dollar may rise if Fed officials hint at tightening job market
  • Japanese Yen drops as stocks rise amid recovery in risk appetite

A relatively quiet economic data docket in European trading hours puts Fed-speak in the spotlight. Comments from Charles Evans and Neel Kashkari, Presidents of the US central bank’s Chicago and Minneapolis branches, are due to cross the wires. Traders will be keen to hear the two officials’ take on the latest jobs report in the context of probability for an interest rate hike at the June FOMC meeting.

April’s labor-market figures disappointed on payrolls growth, revealing the economy added 160k jobs versus the 200k increase expected by economists. Wage growth outperformed however, with the growth rate in average hourly earnings unexpectedly hitting a three-month high at 2.5 percent year-on-year.

Taken together, this may hit ata tightening jobs market. Slowing payroll gains coupled with rising wages might reflect ebbing labor-market slack and approaching “full employment”, a state wherein further decline in joblessness boosts inflation.

This seems to be exactly what the Fed is looking for to ramp up tightening. Rhetoric suggesting as much may boost the US Dollar but weigh on risk appetite, with the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars tracking share prices downward.

The Japanese Yen declined as Asian stocks advanced in overnight trade, sapping demand for the anti-risk currency. The Aussie and Kiwi retraced upward early in the session having underperformed in Friday’s session, but the moves struggled to maintain momentum into the opening bell in Europe.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

2:07

CNY

Exports CNY (YoY) (APR)

4.1%

4.3%

18.7%

2:07

CNY

Imports CNY (YoY) (APR)

-5.7%

0.3%

-1.7%

2:07

CNY

Trade Balance CNY (APR)

298.00b

254.95b

194.60b

2:30

CNY

Trade Balance US$ (APR)

$45.56b

$40.00b

$29.86b

2:30

CNY

Exports US$ (YoY) (APR)

-1.8%

0.0%

11.5%

2:30

CNY

Imports US$ (YoY) (APR)

-10.9%

-4.0%

-7.6%

23:50

JPY

BOJ March Meeting Minutes

-

-

-

0:00

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAR)

1.4%

0.6%

0.7%

0:00

JPY

Real Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAR)

1.4%

-

0.3%

1:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (APR)

-0.8%

-

0.1%

5:00

JPY

Consumer Confidence Index (APR)

40.8

40.7

41.7

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) (MAR)

1.9% (A)

-0.8%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Factory Orders WDA (YoY) (MAR)

1.7% (A)

0.7%

Medium

7:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits

491.7b (A)

491.2b

Low

7:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits

419.5b (A)

423.9b

Low

7:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) (APR)

0.3% (A)

0.3%

Medium

7:15

CHF

CPI (YoY) (APR)

-0.4% (A)

-0.9%

Medium

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (APR)

0.2% (A)

0.4%

Low

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (APR)

-0.5% (A)

-1.0%

Low

7:30

GBP

Halifax House Prices (MoM) (APR)

-0.8% (A)

2.2%

Medium

7:30

GBP

Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year (APR)

9.2% (A)

10.1%

Medium

8:30

EUR

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAY)

6.0

5.7

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1239

1.1331

1.1368

1.1423

1.1460

1.1515

1.1607

GBP/USD

1.4206

1.4334

1.4380

1.4462

1.4508

1.4590

1.4718

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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