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US Dollar Falls, Commodity Currencies Rise as Payrolls Data Looms

US Dollar Falls, Commodity Currencies Rise as Payrolls Data Looms

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Commodity bloc FX gains, US Dollar retreats as payroll data looms
  • Fed officials’ commentary a wildcard in otherwise deliberative trade
  • British Pound may fall as soft PMI data weighs on BOE policy bets

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars advanced in overnight trade. The sentiment-linked currencies shrugged off weakness across Asian stock exchanges – where prices seemed to reflect follow-on weakness carrying over from losses on Wall Street – to rise alongside the more forward-looking S&P 500 futures.

The US Dollar retraced downward having launched a broad-based recovery against its major counterparts in the first half of the week. Taken together, price action probably reflects corrective pre-positioning ahead of Friday’s much-anticipated release of April’s US labor-market data after commodity-bloc FX underperformed in the prior 48 hours.

The deliberative tone is likely to carry forward absent an uncharacteristically brazen comment from Fed officials due to speak in the hours ahead. Remarks from James Bullard, Dennis Lockhart and John Williams – Presidents of the Fed’s St. Louis, Dallas and San Francisco branches respectively – are due to cross the wires.

UK PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The composite gauge is expected to show that the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth narrowly slowed in April. UK economic news-flow has increasingly disappointed relative to median forecasts over the past month, opening the door for a downside surprise that may hurt BOE policy bets and weigh on the British Pound.

What does FXCM traders’ positioning say about FX market trends? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

USD

Fed's Kashkari Hosts Town Hall

-

-

-

01:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (MAR)

8.9%

-

-5.3%

01:30

AUD

Trade Balance (MAR)

-2163m

-2900m

-3044m

01:30

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)

0.4%

0.3%

0.1%

01:30

AUD

Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (1Q)

0.5%

0.7%

0.6%

01:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Services (APR)

51.8

-

52.2

01:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Composite (APR)

50.8

-

51.3

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:30

GBP

Halifax House Prices (MoM) (APR)

-0.3%

2.6%

Medium

07:30

GBP

Halifax House Price (3Mths/Year) (APR)

9.6%

10.1%

Medium

08:00

EUR

ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin

-

-

Medium

08:10

EUR

Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (APR)

-

49.2

Low

08:30

GBP

Official Reserves Changes (APR)

-

$756m

Low

08:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (APR)

53.5

53.7

Medium

08:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (APR)

53.2

53.6

Medium

10:30

EUR

ECB's Visco Speaks in Florence

-

-

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1370

1.1432

1.1460

1.1494

1.1522

1.1556

1.1618

GBP/USD

1.4290

1.4400

1.4448

1.4510

1.4558

1.4620

1.4730

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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