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Euro, Sentiment Trends Hinge on ECB Readiness to Boost Stimulus

Euro, Sentiment Trends Hinge on ECB Readiness to Boost Stimulus

2016-04-21 05:56:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • ECB unlikely to deliver policy change at today’s announcement
  • Draghi presser in focus for guidance on future easing potential
  • Markets likely to be disappointed absent strong dovish rhetoric

The monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank headlines the economic calendar. Economists expect officials will leave the current settings unchanged this time around. Traders’ priced-in bets implied in EONIA futures agree. This makes sense: the ECB announced forceful stimulus expansion last month and will likely want to monitor progress for at least a few months before deciding on whether further measures are necessary.

With that in mind, comments from ECB President Mario Draghi at the press conference following the announcement may nonetheless trigger volatility. The Euro rallied even as the ECB eased further last month as Mr Draghi appeared to close the door for further accommodation, implying the central bank was out of ammunition. Subsequent commentary clarified that he was referring to a shift away from deposit rate cuts toward other measures, but this seemed to be mostly ignored.

Today’s meeting offers Draghi an opportunity to formally clarify forward guidance. If he uses it to unambiguously assert that the ECB is well-armed to deliver greater easing and is prepared to do it on short notice if necessary, the Euro is likely to weaken. Risk appetite may also improve, sending the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars higher alongside stock prices. The absence of a forceful dovish message may leave investors disappointed however, triggering the opposite results.

Are FXCM traders buying or selling the Euro ahead of the ECB rate decision? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAR)

2.9%

-

1.2%

22:45

NZD

Net Migration SA (MAR)

5330

-

6000

01:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (APR)

120

-

118

01:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (APR)

1.7%

-

-1.4%

01:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (1Q)

4

-

5

01:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Government (MAR)

-978m

-

-496m

01:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Market (MAR)

945m

-

476m

01:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Other (MAR)

44m

-

41m

02:00

CNY

Bloomberg April China Economic Survey (APR)

-

-

-

03:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (MoM) (MAR)

-1.1%

-

-0.5%

03:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (YoY) (MAR)

4.8%

-

7.3%

05:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (MAR)

-0.3%

-

3.4%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

CHF

Trade Balance (MAR)

-

4.07b

Low

06:00

CHF

Exports Real (MoM) (MAR)

-

2.8%

Low

06:00

CHF

Imports Real (MoM) (MAR)

-

-2.0%

Low

07:00

CHF

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (MAR)

-

1.7%

Low

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAR)

-0.3%

-0.2%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAR)

3.8%

4.1%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAR)

-0.1%

-0.4%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAR)

4.4%

3.8%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (MAR)

-

0.1b

Low

08:30

GBP

Central Government NCR (MAR)

-

-0.5b

Low

08:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (MAR)

5.4b

6.5b

Low

08:30

GBP

PSNB ex Banking Groups (MAR)

6.0b

7.1b

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Gov’t Debt/GDP Ratio 2015

-

92.1%

Low

11:45

EUR

ECB Main Refinancing Rate (APR 21)

0.00%

0.00%

High

11:45

EUR

ECB Deposit Facility Rate (APR 21)

-0.40%

-0.40%

High

11:45

EUR

ECB Marginal Lending Facility (APR 21)

0.25%

0.25%

High

12:30

EUR

ECB's Draghi Holds Press Conference

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1131

1.1228

1.1263

1.1325

1.1360

1.1422

1.1519

GBP/USD

1.4197

1.4277

1.4305

1.4357

1.4385

1.4437

1.4517

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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