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Euro, Sentiment Trends Hinge on ECB Readiness to Boost Stimulus

Euro, Sentiment Trends Hinge on ECB Readiness to Boost Stimulus

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • ECB unlikely to deliver policy change at today’s announcement
  • Draghi presser in focus for guidance on future easing potential
  • Markets likely to be disappointed absent strong dovish rhetoric

The monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank headlines the economic calendar. Economists expect officials will leave the current settings unchanged this time around. Traders’ priced-in bets implied in EONIA futures agree. This makes sense: the ECB announced forceful stimulus expansion last month and will likely want to monitor progress for at least a few months before deciding on whether further measures are necessary.

With that in mind, comments from ECB President Mario Draghi at the press conference following the announcement may nonetheless trigger volatility. The Euro rallied even as the ECB eased further last month as Mr Draghi appeared to close the door for further accommodation, implying the central bank was out of ammunition. Subsequent commentary clarified that he was referring to a shift away from deposit rate cuts toward other measures, but this seemed to be mostly ignored.

Today’s meeting offers Draghi an opportunity to formally clarify forward guidance. If he uses it to unambiguously assert that the ECB is well-armed to deliver greater easing and is prepared to do it on short notice if necessary, the Euro is likely to weaken. Risk appetite may also improve, sending the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars higher alongside stock prices. The absence of a forceful dovish message may leave investors disappointed however, triggering the opposite results.

Are FXCM traders buying or selling the Euro ahead of the ECB rate decision? Find out here !

Asia Session

22:00NZDANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAR)2.9%-1.2%
22:45NZDNet Migration SA (MAR)5330-6000
01:00NZDANZ Consumer Confidence Index (APR)120-118
01:00NZDANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (APR)1.7%--1.4%
01:30AUDNAB Business Confidence (1Q)4-5
01:30AUDRBA FX Transactions Government (MAR)-978m--496m
01:30AUDRBA FX Transactions Market (MAR)945m-476m
01:30AUDRBA FX Transactions Other (MAR)44m-41m
02:00CNYBloomberg April China Economic Survey (APR)---
03:00NZDCredit Card Spending (MoM) (MAR)-1.1%--0.5%
03:00NZDCredit Card Spending (YoY) (MAR)4.8%-7.3%
05:00JPYSupermarket Sales (YoY) (MAR)-0.3%-3.4%

European Session

06:00CHFTrade Balance (MAR)-4.07bLow
06:00CHFExports Real (MoM) (MAR)-2.8%Low
06:00CHFImports Real (MoM) (MAR)--2.0%Low
07:00CHFMoney Supply M3 (YoY) (MAR)-1.7%Low
08:30GBPRetail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAR)-0.3%-0.2%Medium
08:30GBPRetail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAR)3.8%4.1%Medium
08:30GBPRetail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAR)-0.1%-0.4%Medium
08:30GBPRetail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAR)4.4%3.8%Medium
08:30GBPPublic Finances (PSNCR) (MAR)-0.1bLow
08:30GBPCentral Government NCR (MAR)--0.5bLow
08:30GBPPublic Sector Net Borrowing (MAR)5.4b6.5bLow
08:30GBPPSNB ex Banking Groups (MAR)6.0b7.1bLow
09:00EUREurozone Gov’t Debt/GDP Ratio 2015-92.1%Low
11:45EURECB Main Refinancing Rate (APR 21)0.00%0.00%High
11:45EURECB Deposit Facility Rate (APR 21)-0.40%-0.40%High
11:45EURECB Marginal Lending Facility (APR 21)0.25%0.25%High
12:30EURECB's Draghi Holds Press Conference --High

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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