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Commodity Dollars at Risk on Dour Mood Before 1Q Earnings Season

Commodity Dollars at Risk on Dour Mood Before 1Q Earnings Season

2016-04-08 07:05:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Commodity bloc FX recovers, Yen falls as risk appetite firms in Asian trade
  • Quiet economic data docket puts sentiment trends in focus into the week-end
  • Worries about soft 1Q earnings season may unleash renewed risk aversion

The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars rose traded higher alongside S&P 500 futures while the anti-risk Japanese Yen declined in overnight trade. The moves looked corrective following the onset of risk aversion in the prior session that pushed the US equities benchmark to a weekly low while commodity-bloc FX swooned and the Yen winning streak extended for a fifth consecutive day.

A relatively quiet economic calendar through the remainder of the trading week seems likely to make for a sentiment-centric mood into the week-end. That may augur a repeat of yesterday’s performance on Wall Street, where the latest bout of selling pressure probably reflected pre-positioning ahead of the first-quarter corporate earnings reporting season starting next week.

Collectively speaking, earnings per share for the companies making up the S&P 500 are expected to have fallen 7.9 percent year-on-year in the first three months of 2016. Fears of such dour results may inspire continued unwinding of risk-on exposure, leading shares downward and pulling higher-yielding currencies in the same direction.

How will the second quarter differ from the first for FX markets? See our forecast here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Balance (¥) (FEB)

2434.9b

2032.3b

520.8b

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Adjusted (¥) (FEB)

1733.5b

1571.9b

1492.4b

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance BoP Basis (FEB)

425.2b

429.7b

-411.0b

00:15

USD

Fed's George Speaks on US Economy

-

-

-

04:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR)

-13.15%

-

4.47%

06:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Current (MAR)

45.4

45.5

44.6

06:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (MAR)

46.7

48.3

48.2

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

05:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (MAR)

3.6% (A)

3.7%

Low

05:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate SA (MAR)

3.5% (A)

3.4%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (FEB)

20.3b (A)

13.4b

Low

06:00

EUR

German Current Account Balance (FEB)

20.0b (A)

14.3b

Low

06:00

EUR

German Exports SA (MoM) (FEB)

1.3% (A)

-0.6%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Imports SA (MoM) (FEB)

0.4% (A)

1.3%

Low

07:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) (MAR)

0.3%

0.2%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI (YoY) (MAR)

-0.9%

-0.8%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAR)

0.3%

0.2%

Low

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR)

-1.1%

-0.9%

Low

08:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)

0.1%

0.3%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB)

0.0%

0.2%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB)

-0.2%

0.7%

Low

08:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB)

-0.7%

-0.1%

Low

08:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance £/Mn (FEB)

-£10200

-£10289

Medium

08:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU £/Mn (FEB)

-£2500

-£2199

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1158

1.1274

1.1326

1.1390

1.1442

1.1506

1.1622

GBP/USD

1.3871

1.3979

1.4018

1.4087

1.4126

1.4195

1.4303

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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