Talking Points:
- Commodity bloc FX recovers, Yen falls as risk appetite firms in Asian trade
- Quiet economic data docket puts sentiment trends in focus into the week-end
- Worries about soft 1Q earnings season may unleash renewed risk aversion
The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars rose traded higher alongside S&P 500 futures while the anti-risk Japanese Yen declined in overnight trade. The moves looked corrective following the onset of risk aversion in the prior session that pushed the US equities benchmark to a weekly low while commodity-bloc FX swooned and the Yen winning streak extended for a fifth consecutive day.
A relatively quiet economic calendar through the remainder of the trading week seems likely to make for a sentiment-centric mood into the week-end. That may augur a repeat of yesterday’s performance on Wall Street, where the latest bout of selling pressure probably reflected pre-positioning ahead of the first-quarter corporate earnings reporting season starting next week.
Collectively speaking, earnings per share for the companies making up the S&P 500 are expected to have fallen 7.9 percent year-on-year in the first three months of 2016. Fears of such dour results may inspire continued unwinding of risk-on exposure, leading shares downward and pulling higher-yielding currencies in the same direction.
How will the second quarter differ from the first for FX markets? See our forecast here !
Asia Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:50 | JPY | BoP Current Account Balance (¥) (FEB) | 2434.9b | 2032.3b | 520.8b |
| 23:50 | JPY | BoP Current Account Adjusted (¥) (FEB) | 1733.5b | 1571.9b | 1492.4b |
| 23:50 | JPY | Trade Balance BoP Basis (FEB) | 425.2b | 429.7b | -411.0b |
| 00:15 | USD | Fed's George Speaks on US Economy | - | - | - |
| 04:30 | JPY | Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR) | -13.15% | - | 4.47% |
| 06:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey Current (MAR) | 45.4 | 45.5 | 44.6 |
| 06:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (MAR) | 46.7 | 48.3 | 48.2 |
European Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP/ACT | PREV | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:45 | CHF | Unemployment Rate (MAR) | 3.6% (A) | 3.7% | Low |
| 05:45 | CHF | Unemployment Rate SA (MAR) | 3.5% (A) | 3.4% | Low |
| 06:00 | EUR | German Trade Balance (FEB) | 20.3b (A) | 13.4b | Low |
| 06:00 | EUR | German Current Account Balance (FEB) | 20.0b (A) | 14.3b | Low |
| 06:00 | EUR | German Exports SA (MoM) (FEB) | 1.3% (A) | -0.6% | Low |
| 06:00 | EUR | German Imports SA (MoM) (FEB) | 0.4% (A) | 1.3% | Low |
| 07:15 | CHF | CPI (MoM) (MAR) | 0.3% | 0.2% | Medium |
| 07:15 | CHF | CPI (YoY) (MAR) | -0.9% | -0.8% | Medium |
| 07:15 | CHF | CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAR) | 0.3% | 0.2% | Low |
| 07:15 | CHF | CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR) | -1.1% | -0.9% | Low |
| 08:30 | GBP | Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB) | 0.1% | 0.3% | Medium |
| 08:30 | GBP | Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB) | 0.0% | 0.2% | Medium |
| 08:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB) | -0.2% | 0.7% | Low |
| 08:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB) | -0.7% | -0.1% | Low |
| 08:30 | GBP | Visible Trade Balance £/Mn (FEB) | -£10200 | -£10289 | Medium |
| 08:30 | GBP | Trade Balance Non EU £/Mn (FEB) | -£2500 | -£2199 | Low |
Critical Levels
| CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1158 | 1.1274 | 1.1326 | 1.1390 | 1.1442 | 1.1506 | 1.1622 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3871 | 1.3979 | 1.4018 | 1.4087 | 1.4126 | 1.4195 | 1.4303 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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