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Commodity Dollars at Risk on Dour Mood Before 1Q Earnings Season

Commodity Dollars at Risk on Dour Mood Before 1Q Earnings Season

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • Commodity bloc FX recovers, Yen falls as risk appetite firms in Asian trade
  • Quiet economic data docket puts sentiment trends in focus into the week-end
  • Worries about soft 1Q earnings season may unleash renewed risk aversion

The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars rose traded higher alongside S&P 500 futures while the anti-risk Japanese Yen declined in overnight trade. The moves looked corrective following the onset of risk aversion in the prior session that pushed the US equities benchmark to a weekly low while commodity-bloc FX swooned and the Yen winning streak extended for a fifth consecutive day.

A relatively quiet economic calendar through the remainder of the trading week seems likely to make for a sentiment-centric mood into the week-end. That may augur a repeat of yesterday’s performance on Wall Street, where the latest bout of selling pressure probably reflected pre-positioning ahead of the first-quarter corporate earnings reporting season starting next week.

Collectively speaking, earnings per share for the companies making up the S&P 500 are expected to have fallen 7.9 percent year-on-year in the first three months of 2016. Fears of such dour results may inspire continued unwinding of risk-on exposure, leading shares downward and pulling higher-yielding currencies in the same direction.

How will the second quarter differ from the first for FX markets? See our forecast here !

Asia Session

23:50JPYBoP Current Account Balance (¥) (FEB)2434.9b2032.3b520.8b
23:50JPYBoP Current Account Adjusted (¥) (FEB)1733.5b1571.9b1492.4b
23:50JPYTrade Balance BoP Basis (FEB)425.2b429.7b-411.0b
00:15USDFed's George Speaks on US Economy ---
04:30JPYBankruptcies (YoY) (MAR)-13.15%-4.47%
06:00JPYEco Watchers Survey Current (MAR)45.445.544.6
06:00JPYEco Watchers Survey Outlook (MAR)46.748.348.2

European Session

05:45CHFUnemployment Rate (MAR)3.6% (A)3.7%Low
05:45CHFUnemployment Rate SA (MAR)3.5% (A)3.4%Low
06:00EURGerman Trade Balance (FEB)20.3b (A)13.4bLow
06:00EURGerman Current Account Balance (FEB)20.0b (A)14.3bLow
06:00EURGerman Exports SA (MoM) (FEB)1.3% (A)-0.6%Low
06:00EURGerman Imports SA (MoM) (FEB)0.4% (A)1.3%Low
07:15CHFCPI (MoM) (MAR)0.3%0.2%Medium
07:15CHFCPI (YoY) (MAR)-0.9%-0.8%Medium
07:15CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAR)0.3%0.2%Low
07:15CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR)-1.1%-0.9%Low
08:30GBPIndustrial Production (MoM) (FEB)0.1%0.3%Medium
08:30GBPIndustrial Production (YoY) (FEB)0.0%0.2%Medium
08:30GBPManufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB)-0.2%0.7%Low
08:30GBPManufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB)-0.7%-0.1%Low
08:30GBPVisible Trade Balance £/Mn (FEB)-£10200-£10289Medium
08:30GBPTrade Balance Non EU £/Mn (FEB)-£2500-£2199Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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