Commodity Dollars at Risk on Dour Mood Before 1Q Earnings Season
- Commodity bloc FX recovers, Yen falls as risk appetite firms in Asian trade
- Quiet economic data docket puts sentiment trends in focus into the week-end
- Worries about soft 1Q earnings season may unleash renewed risk aversion
The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars rose traded higher alongside S&P 500 futures while the anti-risk Japanese Yen declined in overnight trade. The moves looked corrective following the onset of risk aversion in the prior session that pushed the US equities benchmark to a weekly low while commodity-bloc FX swooned and the Yen winning streak extended for a fifth consecutive day.
A relatively quiet economic calendar through the remainder of the trading week seems likely to make for a sentiment-centric mood into the week-end. That may augur a repeat of yesterday’s performance on Wall Street, where the latest bout of selling pressure probably reflected pre-positioning ahead of the first-quarter corporate earnings reporting season starting next week.
Collectively speaking, earnings per share for the companies making up the S&P 500 are expected to have fallen 7.9 percent year-on-year in the first three months of 2016. Fears of such dour results may inspire continued unwinding of risk-on exposure, leading shares downward and pulling higher-yielding currencies in the same direction.
How will the second quarter differ from the first for FX markets? See our forecast here !
|23:50||JPY||BoP Current Account Balance (¥) (FEB)||2434.9b||2032.3b||520.8b|
|23:50||JPY||BoP Current Account Adjusted (¥) (FEB)||1733.5b||1571.9b||1492.4b|
|23:50||JPY||Trade Balance BoP Basis (FEB)||425.2b||429.7b||-411.0b|
|00:15||USD||Fed's George Speaks on US Economy||-||-||-|
|04:30||JPY||Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR)||-13.15%||-||4.47%|
|06:00||JPY||Eco Watchers Survey Current (MAR)||45.4||45.5||44.6|
|06:00||JPY||Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (MAR)||46.7||48.3||48.2|
|05:45||CHF||Unemployment Rate (MAR)||3.6% (A)||3.7%||Low|
|05:45||CHF||Unemployment Rate SA (MAR)||3.5% (A)||3.4%||Low|
|06:00||EUR||German Trade Balance (FEB)||20.3b (A)||13.4b||Low|
|06:00||EUR||German Current Account Balance (FEB)||20.0b (A)||14.3b||Low|
|06:00||EUR||German Exports SA (MoM) (FEB)||1.3% (A)||-0.6%||Low|
|06:00||EUR||German Imports SA (MoM) (FEB)||0.4% (A)||1.3%||Low|
|07:15||CHF||CPI (MoM) (MAR)||0.3%||0.2%||Medium|
|07:15||CHF||CPI (YoY) (MAR)||-0.9%||-0.8%||Medium|
|07:15||CHF||CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAR)||0.3%||0.2%||Low|
|07:15||CHF||CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR)||-1.1%||-0.9%||Low|
|08:30||GBP||Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)||0.1%||0.3%||Medium|
|08:30||GBP||Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB)||0.0%||0.2%||Medium|
|08:30||GBP||Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB)||-0.2%||0.7%||Low|
|08:30||GBP||Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB)||-0.7%||-0.1%||Low|
|08:30||GBP||Visible Trade Balance £/Mn (FEB)||-£10200||-£10289||Medium|
|08:30||GBP||Trade Balance Non EU £/Mn (FEB)||-£2500||-£2199||Low|
|CCY||Supp 3||Supp 2||Supp 1||Pivot Point||Res 1||Res 2||Res 3|
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.