Talking Points:
- Commodity bloc FX recovers, Yen falls as risk appetite firms in Asian trade
- Quiet economic data docket puts sentiment trends in focus into the week-end
- Worries about soft 1Q earnings season may unleash renewed risk aversion
The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars rose traded higher alongside S&P 500 futures while the anti-risk Japanese Yen declined in overnight trade. The moves looked corrective following the onset of risk aversion in the prior session that pushed the US equities benchmark to a weekly low while commodity-bloc FX swooned and the Yen winning streak extended for a fifth consecutive day.
A relatively quiet economic calendar through the remainder of the trading week seems likely to make for a sentiment-centric mood into the week-end. That may augur a repeat of yesterday’s performance on Wall Street, where the latest bout of selling pressure probably reflected pre-positioning ahead of the first-quarter corporate earnings reporting season starting next week.
Collectively speaking, earnings per share for the companies making up the S&P 500 are expected to have fallen 7.9 percent year-on-year in the first three months of 2016. Fears of such dour results may inspire continued unwinding of risk-on exposure, leading shares downward and pulling higher-yielding currencies in the same direction.
How will the second quarter differ from the first for FX markets? See our forecast here!
Asia Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
BoP Current Account Balance (¥) (FEB) |
2434.9b |
2032.3b |
520.8b |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
BoP Current Account Adjusted (¥) (FEB) |
1733.5b |
1571.9b |
1492.4b |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Trade Balance BoP Basis (FEB) |
425.2b |
429.7b |
-411.0b |
|
00:15 |
Fed's George Speaks on US Economy |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
04:30 |
JPY |
Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR) |
-13.15% |
- |
4.47% |
|
06:00 |
JPY |
Eco Watchers Survey Current (MAR) |
45.4 |
45.5 |
44.6 |
|
06:00 |
JPY |
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (MAR) |
46.7 |
48.3 |
48.2 |
European Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP/ACT |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
05:45 |
Unemployment Rate (MAR) |
3.6% (A) |
3.7% |
Low |
|
|
05:45 |
Unemployment Rate SA (MAR) |
3.5% (A) |
3.4% |
Low |
|
|
06:00 |
German Trade Balance (FEB) |
20.3b (A) |
13.4b |
Low |
|
|
06:00 |
German Current Account Balance (FEB) |
20.0b (A) |
14.3b |
Low |
|
|
06:00 |
German Exports SA (MoM) (FEB) |
1.3% (A) |
-0.6% |
Low |
|
|
06:00 |
German Imports SA (MoM) (FEB) |
0.4% (A) |
1.3% |
Low |
|
|
07:15 |
CPI (MoM) (MAR) |
0.3% |
0.2% |
Medium |
|
|
07:15 |
CPI (YoY) (MAR) |
-0.9% |
-0.8% |
Medium |
|
|
07:15 |
CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAR) |
0.3% |
0.2% |
Low |
|
|
07:15 |
CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR) |
-1.1% |
-0.9% |
Low |
|
|
08:30 |
Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
Medium |
|
|
08:30 |
Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
Medium |
|
|
08:30 |
Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB) |
-0.2% |
0.7% |
Low |
|
|
08:30 |
Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB) |
-0.7% |
-0.1% |
Low |
|
|
08:30 |
Visible Trade Balance £/Mn (FEB) |
-£10200 |
-£10289 |
Medium |
|
|
08:30 |
Trade Balance Non EU £/Mn (FEB) |
-£2500 |
-£2199 |
Low |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
Supp 3 |
Supp 2 |
Supp 1 |
Pivot Point |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
Res 3 |
|
1.1158 |
1.1274 |
1.1326 |
1.1390 |
1.1442 |
1.1506 |
1.1622 |
|
|
1.3871 |
1.3979 |
1.4018 |
1.4087 |
1.4126 |
1.4195 |
1.4303 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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