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British Pound May Rise on UK PMI After Friday Selloff

British Pound May Rise on UK PMI After Friday Selloff

2016-04-04 03:36:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Yen gains, commodity bloc currencies fall amid risk aversion in FX space
  • Aussie Dollar underperforms as soft Retail Sales data hurts RBA outlook
  • British Pound may rebound on Construction PMI data after Friday selloff

The sentiment-sensitive commodity bloc currencies weakened and the safety-linked Japanese Yen traded higher as risk appetite soured in overnight trade. Interestingly, the moves appeared to be ignored by the equities space, with Asian bourses relatively little-changed by around midday in Tokyo and Sydney. Crude oil fell alongside S&P 500 futures as well as gold prices however, hinting the overall landscape may reflect pre-positioning for this week’s release of minutes from the March FOMC meeting.

The Australian Dollar underperformed following a disappointing Retail Sales report. Receipts registered flat in February, falling short of expectations calling for a 0.4 percent increase. The year-on-year growth rate dropped to 3.3 percent, the lowest since September 2013. The currency tracked downward parallel to a drop in Australian front-end bond yields, suggesting the report inspired RBA rate cut bets. Easing is not expected at this week’s policy meeting however.

Looking ahead, a relatively quiet economic calendar is headlined by UK Construction PMI figures. Broadly speaking, UK economic news-flow has improved relative to consensus forecasts over the past two months, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such a result may help encourage a recovery from the British Pound after the currency broadly slumped on Friday. That move may have reflected flows linked to portfolio adjustment for “Brexit” referendum risk at the start of the new fiscal year and the new quarter.

What do DailyFX analysts expect from markets in the second quarter? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base (YoY) (MAR)

28.5%

-

29.0%

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base End of period (¥) (MAR)

375.7t

-

358.8t

01:00

AUD

Melbourne Institute Inflation (MoM) (MAR)

0.0%

-

-0.2%

01:00

AUD

Melbourne Institute Inflation (YoY) (MAR)

1.7%

-

2.1%

01:30

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)

0.0%

0.4%

0.3%

01:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAR)

0.2%

-

-1.2%

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (FEB)

3.1%

2.5%

-6.6%

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (FEB)

-9.0%

-9.1%

-14.5%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits (APR 1)

-

483.3b

Low

07:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits (APR 1)

-

419.6b

Low

08:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (MAR)

54.1

54.2

Medium

08:30

EUR

Sentix Investor Confidence (APR)

7.0

5.5

Low

08:30

EUR

ECB's Praet Speaks at in Rome

-

-

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone PPI (MoM) (FEB)

-0.5%

-1.0%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone PPI (YoY) (FEB)

-4.0%

-2.9%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (FEB)

10.3%

10.3%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1182

1.1285

1.1338

1.1388

1.1441

1.1491

1.1594

GBP/USD

1.3855

1.4056

1.4141

1.4257

1.4342

1.4458

1.4659

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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